Is Iran unbeatable in Asian caging?

Only the winner of the 2015 FIBA Asia Championships to be held in China will gain an outright ticket to represent the continent at the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro and from the looks of things, Iran is the popular choice to make it.

There will be 12 countries competing for basketball gold in Brazil with Asia allocated just one slot which is reserved for the team that tops next year’s FIBA Asia tournament. However, the second and third place FIBA Asia finishers will be invited to participate in a 12-team Olympic qualifying meet where the top three placers advance to compete in Rio de Janeiro so the window is open for more entries.

The nine guaranteed slots for the 2016 Olympics are allocated to the host country Brazil, the 2014 FIBA World Cup champion, the African champion, the Asian champion, the Oceania champion, the two finalists in Europe and the two finalists in the Americas. In the event the US wins the FIBA World Cup in Spain and is a finalist in the Americas Championships, the next highest finisher in the Americas qualifiers claims the ticket to Rio. Three slots will be given to the top three placers in the Olympic qualifying tournament where 12 teams are to participate. The 12 teams are the Oceania runner-up, the second and third placers in Africa and Asia, the next three finishers in the Americas and the next four finishers in Europe.

That means the silver and bronze medalists of the FIBA Asia Championships will receive an invitation to vie for three Olympic tickets in the “bonus” qualifying tournament. It’s probably easier to win the FIBA Asia title than to finish among the top three in the qualifying joust.

* * *

Here’s how the Olympic slots were settled in 2012. The nine guaranteed slots went to host Great Britain, 2010 FIBA World Cup champion US, African champion Tunisia, Oceania champion Australia, Asia champion China, Argentina and Brazil from the Americas and Spain and France from Europe. The top three placers in the Olympic qualifying tournament that was held in Caracas were Lithuania, Russia and Nigeria. The qualifying tournament brought in Jordan and South Korea from Asia, New Zealand from Oceania, Angola and Nigeria from Africa, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from the Americas and Russia, Macedonia, Lithuania and Greece from Europe.

Iran has captured three of the last four FIBA Asia titles and the last two FIBA Asia Cup crowns. At the FIBA Asia Championships in Manila last year, Iran was the only undefeated team with a 9-0 record. At the FIBA Asia Cup in Wuhan a few weeks ago, Iran didn’t finish unscathed although it took the title just the same. Iran lost a 64-51 decision to China in the preliminaries but was dominant in crushing the Philippines, 76-55, in the semifinals and Chinese-Taipei, 89-79, in the final. China showed clear signs of vulnerability in losing to Chinese-Taipei, 84-73, in the semifinals and the Philippines, 80-79, in the battle for third. So if Iran lost to China and China lost to Chinese-Taipei and the Philippines, it could be anybody’s title at the FIBA Asia Championships next year.

Iran showed up in Wuhan without six players from the FIBA Asia title roster, including mainstays Nikkhah Bahrami, Mahdi Kamrani and Hamed Afagh. Coach Memi Becirovic of Slovenia brought in six newbies to join holdovers Hamed Haddadi, Asghar Kardoust, Oshin Sahakian, Saman Veisi, Rouzbeh Arghavan and Mohammad Jamshidi. The recruits were 6-7 Arsalan Kazemi, 6-3 Behnam Yakhchalidehkordi, 6-3 Yonas Lalehzadeh, 6-2 Mohammad Reza Akbari, 6-8 Arman Zangeneh and 5-11 Sajjad Mashayekhi.

What was evident in Becirovic’ rotation was Iran has moved forward without Bahrami and Kamrani. The next generation is now present and accounted for. Jamshidi, 22, is the new Bahrami and Mashayekhi, 20, the new Kamrani. Yakhchalidehkordi, 18, provides added sock from the two-guard position. The interior remains solid with 7-2 Haddadi, 28, and 6-11 Kardosut, 27.

* * *

In the semifinal game against the Philippines, fans looked forward to the clash between Haddadi and Marcus Douthit. They didn’t face off at the FIBA Asia Championships final last year as Douthit was down with a leg injury. But alas, in Wuhan, Douthit picked up two fouls in the opening three minutes and sat out most of the first half. Douthit wound up with six points and eight rebounds in 21:04 while Haddadi compiled 11 points, five rebounds and five assists in 32:08.

Curiously, it wasn’t Haddadi who was Gilas’ biggest thorn. In fact, Iran’s ball movement stalled whenever Haddadi had possession and made it easier for Gilas to defend. Iran was most lethal when the quick guards stepped on the gas and the shooters found the mark from beyond the arc. The stats told the story. Iran had more three-point makes, 7-3, more fastbreak points, 8-0, more turnover points, 11-2, more assists, 14-7 and more rebounds, 43-34. Without Jeff Chan, the Philippines struggled from three-point range as Ranidel de Ocampo and Paul Lee were a combined 0-of-7. Without Jayson Castro and Jimmy Alapag, Gilas was scoreless in transition. 

It was somewhat of a turnaround from Iran’s 85-71 win over the Philippines in the FIBA Asia Championships final where Gilas had more three-point makes, 10-3, more turnover points, 14-8 and more fastbreak points, 6-2. Clearly, Iran improved in Wuhan on the things that showed a deficiency in Manila last year. At the next FIBA Asia Championships, Gilas will be better prepared to face Iran, this time with a full complement, possibly to include Andray Blatche. It will mean Gabe Norwood defending Jamshidi, Castro chasing down Mashayekhi and Chan duelling Yakhchalidehkordi triple for triple. It will mean no surprises from either side.

Iran looked formidable in Wuhan against a Gilas squad that was hastily formed and lacked key cogs. It could be a different story when they meet again.