Is ‘No-el’ a surprise?

The Christmas season is over but politicians in the Philippines are still singing noel. This is just being facetious about so much hullaballoo on the purported “No-el,” or no election scenario making the rounds of the political circles in our country. Of course, this refers to the next mid-term elections in the Philippines set on May 6, 2019 elections.

The loudest hue and cry comes from the political opposition leaders seeing “No-el” plots flippantly floated by administration allies of President Rodrigo Duterte. As the nominal chieftain of the ruling party, the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), President Duterte is now being accused of trying to lay the groundwork for his possible extension in office.

It is no secret that President Duterte supports and in fact publicly espouses the shift to federalism through Charter change (Cha-cha). In fact, he has been endorsing the  federal shift even during the May 2016 presidential campaign. As the incumbent Chief Executive, he is thus an easy target to pin the “No-el” plot.

The “No-el” talks were re-ignited when House Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez was interviewed about the legislative priorities of the 17th Congress. In that TV interview, the straight-talking Speaker mentioned Cha-cha as among the top priority agenda of the House of Representatives when they resume sessions on Jan. 15.

When asked if this could lead to a “No-el” scenario in 2019, Alvarez replied: “I have to be frank, anything is possible. You know why? Let’s be practical. If you shift to a new system of government, you need a transition. You cannot implement it immediately after it is ratified.”

If everything pans out, Alvarez admitted, the plan is for the Lower House and the Senate to convene as a Constituent Assembly or Con-Ass later this month to start re-writing the country’s 1987 Constitution.

As the secretary-general of the PDP-Laban, the words of Speaker Alvarez carry a lot of weight.

As expected, several Senators from both the ruling majority and the opposition ranks earlier declared they would not agree to convene as a Con-Ass. Alvarez, however, expects Senate president Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III would help push Cha-cha for federalism “because it is a priority of President Duterte and of PDP-Laban.”

Pimentel is the ruling party’s president. Like President Duterte, Alvarez – who is the congressman from Davao del Norte – shares the aspirations of Pimentel and other fellow Mindanaoans to push the federal system as the solution to long-lasting peace in southern Philippines.

Amid the “No-el” debates, presidential spokesman Harry Roque assuaged the public there will be elections in 2019. That is, unless otherwise the 1987 Constitution is amended much earlier as planned. Reacting to suspicions raised by Cha-cha opponents, Roque reminded them of President Duterte’s public avowals to uphold the Constitution at all cost, even to his life.

“The President always looks to the Constitution as his guiding document…The role of the President is to implement the Constitution and the law,” Roque stressed. As to efforts or initiatives by administration allies to extend the President’s term beyond June 2022, Roque cited the consistent public pronouncements of the President: “I can categorically state that PRRD (Duterte’s initials) does not want that. He wants to cut short his term rather than lengthen it.”

Being a Mayor for close to 23 years in Davao City and a one-term Congressman, President Duterte only knows fully well how politicians thrive here in our country. The 72-year-old President is certainly no babe in the woods if we talk about shrewd politicians.

We’re just into the first five days of the new year, 2018, and yet these politicians are already talking about the mid-term elections. That’s 17 months ahead of the slated polls. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) will still have to prepare for the holding of the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections that were reset to October this year.

As early as the last quarter of 2017, there were already commissioned surveys by senatorial candidates eyeing the run for the May 2019 elections. The latest survey by the Social Weather Station (SWS) on “senatorial preferences for the 2019 elections” went viral yesterday. The unofficial results were based on the national survey done from Dec. 8-16 last year.

The 4th quarter survey showed seven re-electionist Senators are in the “12 magic winning circle.” Sen. Grace Poe (independent) remains fixed at the top spot. Fellow re-electionist Senator Cynthia Villar placed second. Pimentel on third, and Sen. Nancy Binay on fourth. Taguig/Pateros Rep. Pia Cayetano ranked fifth.

Re-electionist Senator Sonny Angara ranked sixth. Recently released on bail, ex-Sen. Jinggoy Estrada joined fellow ex-Sen. Bongbong Marcos Jr. at 7th to 8th slot. The President’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio is solo at the 9th slot.

It is a three-way tie for the last three slots, 10th to 11th and 12th rank for re-electionist Sen. JV Ejercito, comebacking Senator action star-turned politician Lito Lapid, and TV-4 news anchor Erwin Tulfo.

Losing steam from the mock polls from their previous winning slots in the 3rd quarter SWS survey was re-electionist Senator Bam Aquino (LP). From 6th to 7th rank, Aquino’s latest poll standing fell to 14th place. Also falling was fellow LP ex-Sen. Mar Roxas II who run but lost to President Duterte in the last 2016 elections – ranked 9th to 10th place in the 3rd quarter. His latest numbers fell to 13th place.

As I’ve said in my column last Dec. 22 when the first senatorial survey came out, the administration allies of President Duterte are indeed busy preparing this early for a full 12-man Senate ticket. Though happening quietly and behind closed-door meetings, the jockeying for the Senate race has been on since then.

 So all these talks of “No-el” are nothing but noises for now. The real battle royale ahead is among these senatorial aspirants in 2019 mid-elections. Or is something by the name of “No-el” may spring a surprise?