No quick fix

The tuwid na daan or straight path lost more public goodwill the other day with that show of hakot unity that snarled traffic for hours along EDSA and surrounding areas from Quezon City to Parañaque.

Since it was a regular working day, people went to work earlier than usual to avoid the expected traffic on the 29th anniversary of the people power revolt – only to find out that portions of EDSA had been closed as early as 6 a.m. Why? So a bunch of cops and soldiers could march arm in arm to the EDSA Shrine and show to the world that P-Noy was in no danger of being toppled.

That “unity march” was not people power but a panic attack by the administration. The groups that staged anti-Aquino rallies in previous days – belittled by Malacañang for their numbers – can count the panic attack as their achievement. They shouted “boo!” and the administration jumped – unfortunately, at the expense of harried motorists and commuters, who were stuck in traffic for up to four hours last Wednesday.

P-Noy should relax – his popularity has taken a hit again because of the Mamasapano mess, but there’s no groundswell for a change of leadership this late into his single, six-year term.

People understand the enormous destabilizing impact on the nation of throwing out a president each time several hundred people march in the streets to demand his ouster.

There will be no popular support for a coup d’état or another EDSA revolt. We’ve had EDSA 2 and 3 and look where that got us. And it’s too late for an impeachment; congressmen are getting busy raising funds and preparing for the 2016 campaign.

The road to the 1986 revolution was long, perilous and splattered with blood at various spots. But EDSA Dos in 2001 made revolution seem so easy. Since then various groups have been trying to duplicate that easy shortcut to regime change.

One lesson we can take away from the people power revolutions is that there is no quick fix to our problems. A popular uprising needs sustained hard work from everyone to build on the gains and implement difficult reforms.

Things don’t fall neatly into place when we toss out a president. As we have seen in many aspects of national life, if we compare the situation in 1986 to the present, many things that could have been changed especially in the first year after EDSA 1, under a revolutionary government, have remained the same.

So P-Noy should relax; he’s safe in his post.

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He can focus on low-hanging fruits that he can tout as achievements in his remaining 16 months. There are economic measures that must be passed and infrastructure projects that can be launched or completed.

Right now he seems to be preoccupied with salvaging his peace initiative. Every president wants to be known as a champion of peace, and P-Noy is no exception. Making the original peace treaty work must be unexciting and will not earn him a Nobel Prize.

So, like his predecessor, P-Noy is setting aside a 19-year-old peace treaty and forging a new one, and carving out another autonomous region consisting of the existing one plus at least (the parties hope) the long-desired elusive prize, Zamboanga City.

The chartered city has consistently rejected inclusion in any autonomous Muslim region. It’s doubtful that Zamboanga will change its position, regardless of the final form the Bangsamoro Basic Law takes.

The previous administration had its Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), but Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo could not claim it as her peace legacy; the MOA-AD was tossed out as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. 

Last year the administration signed its own preliminary peace agreement with the MILF. It looks like President Aquino wants something to crow about on the peace front in his final State of the Nation Address this July: he wants the BBL passed in time for his SONA.

Because of the Jan. 25 slaughter of 44 police commandos in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, lawmakers are subjecting to minute scrutiny the draft BBL hammered out by the government panel with the MILF.

But it looks like P-Noy’s principal concern is simply to have the law passed so he can sign it before his SONA. As Palace officials have said, any BBL will do. The executive would have done its job, and the fate of the BBL would be tossed to the judiciary, as it is sure to be challenged before the Supreme Court.

If lawmakers grant P-Noy’s request not to dilute the BBL “too much,” it’s likely to be struck down by the high court, as several legal experts have pointed out. This is the reason why critics of the peace deal with the BBL want the government to grant the MILF’s demand to enact the law as is, ASAP; the critics are certain that it will be the death of the BBL. Then perhaps P-Noy can focus on his promise to give justice to the families of the 44 slain Special Action Force (SAF) commandos.

Even if the BBL hurdles constitutional challenges, it will still need to be approved in a plebiscite. If it coincides with the general elections as initially planned, it will effectively be a referendum on the Aquino administration, and will likely affect the votes of whoever is endorsed by P-Noy as his successor.

That endorsement power is being eroded as the MILF continues to ignore P-Noy’s “minimum demands” in the wake of the Mamasapano slaughter: the identification of the SAF 44’s killers, turnover of terrorist Basit Usman, and return of the guns, equipment and personal belongings of the slain commandos.

The coddling of terrorists, arms buildup, and brutality displayed by the MILF and its cousins in the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters toward the SAF 44 has spooked even lawmakers.

Public outrage over the SAF 44 triggered calls for P-Noy’s ouster. He will keep his post, but his weakened state will make it more difficult for him to push his programs in his final year in office.