Epicenter: Washington, DC

SEARCH FOR TRUTH Ernesto P. Maceda Jr.

A few weeks ago, we wrote a column explaining how the US election process works. This week, to the earthshaking surprise of many, Donald J. Trump is the president-elect of the USA.

Clearly, all the polls and most of the media pundits got this one wrong. As a country that elected Rody D and even PacMan as Senator, we should be less shocked than most.

Trump is a macho celebrity, with salty language that connected to the American “common tao.” He related with simple slogans like “make America great again.”  by insulting his opponents: “Crooked Hillary,” and taking a very anti-establishment, anti-trapo stance. He will be the oldest incoming President ever at age 70, and has not held political office at any level. He has never even visited the White House or Congress. Yet, in two months he will be residing in Washington. With insights from my brother Manny, let’s examine how he won, the implications for the world, and for Pinoys at home and abroad.

The divided States of America. Any Presidential win requires analysis of the voter segments. This was a very close win where Trump did not get a majority (48%) – and Clinton (also 48%) actually won the overall popular vote. Trump did win the electoral vote substantially by winning many close states. The analysis of the states shows where and how he won. He overwhelmingly won the rural and non-urban states. The West Coast and Northeast (SF, LA, NY etc) voted for Clinton. The “probinsyas” of the US went for Trump.  This is the core of the victory. At the country wide level – the US has been doing well. Only five % unemployment rate – eight years since the last recession and an economic performance that could be the envy of the world. But much of that benefit has been concentrated on key sectors – the cities, the technology centers. The classic manufacturing rust belt of America got left behind.

Trump mobilized the historically silent majority that resides in these areas. America is still 70% white and he won the white male vote overwhelmingly. Clinton won the minority vote – the Blacks, Hispanics, Asians make up 30% – but not at the levels Obama did. And, as a sign of her own weaknesses as a candidate, she did not even win the female vote strongly enough. White women went 50% for Trump despite his misogyny.  The divisions are real and profound, and the Divided States of America will need to find a way to unite. This will be extremely challenging regardless of who won.

Democracy 101. Let’s also reflect on the process, and what we the world can learn from the country that created democracy in its purest form. It starts with a peaceful transition of power even with all the rancor. President Obama committed to that as soon as the vote was in. We continue to be amazed that within four hours of the poll closing, they can declare a victor even with that small margin of victory. No need for a complex Comelec or Namfrel count. Yes the campaigns were too long, but the counting process is something we should have. In the aftermath, surprisingly the winner was magnanimous in victory, the loser gracious in defeat. We also learned that sometimes the machinery didn’t matter. The Democrats had the party in power and had more money. Unfortunately, like P-Noy’s party, they just did not have the winnable candidate. But there is also something intrinsically wrong in the US process that the overall vote getter (Clinton) loses because of the winner take all Electoral College system.

The immediate next steps will be important. Trump had the least defined policy position of any of the candidates. And so, like the aftermath of Duterte, he will immediately plan a transition with a team led by Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. He will select a Cabinet. And he will need to rebuild divisions in his own party since so many senior Republicans distanced themselves from Trump. The US president is actually quite limited in internal power compared to most countries. There is implicit gridlock in balancing the power of the Senate, the House, and the judicial branch. But for the first time in many administrations there will be one Party in control of the Senate, House and Presidency. If the Republicans unite then a political and legislative agenda can emerge.

Now what? The global implications of the victory will take time to understand – as it did for Duterte. Will Trump as the winner follow through on some of the pre-election promises? The stock market which was forecast to decline if he won finished higher in the aftermath. The US role in global security issues could see some changes. Perhaps a stronger relationship with Russia. A revisit of the role of NATO, NAFTA, the TPP. All remains to be seen. But as we predicted in a column a few weeks ago, just as we saw with Brexit as the harbinger, we expect the nationalist movements could propel more Trumps and Brexits. Le Pen in France for example. Like Michael Corleone: “Just when I thought I was out (to take my place in a globalized world), they pull me back in!”

Finally what are the implications for the Philippines? Our economy is tied to global trade with industries like call centers. Our security in the South China Sea is directly affected by China and US policy.  We have aproximately four million Pinoys in the US. For the “Tago ng Tago” TNT group – policies on illegal immigration will make it harder. For the rest including the legal immigrants, racism might rear its ugly head. As a country predominantly Catholic, we are sensitive to Republican appointed Supreme Court Justices vetted by a Republican Senate increasing the chance that the replacement for Justice Scalia will be consistent with his pro-life views. And of course some of this will be dependent on the larger than life personalities. President Duterte didn’t really need to build a relationship with Obama. He is a lame duck after all. But for the next four years at least both these colorful characters will be the leaders of nations that have been historically strong allies. Just like two bullies in a playground – will they become “mag-barkada”? Or will there not be enough space for all that machismo? Stay tuned.