Tom Dumoulin will win the Giro, and here’s why

After three weeks and 3,582kms, the 217 Giro d’Italia will finally be settled tonight (last night, Php time) by a 27km individual time trial. Nailbiter, this Giro is.

Five riders are realistically in contention for the podium spots and only 75 seconds separates the quintet. They are, in general classification order: 1- Nairo Quintana, 2- Vincenzo Nibali @39sec, 3- Thibaut Pinot @43sec, 4- Tom Dumoulin @53 and Ilnur Zakarin @1.25min.

Quintana has said that his lead is just enough for him to win the 100th edition of the Giro but I beg to differ. The time gaps for this TT doesn’t favor a wispy climber like Quintana, and favors a big gear stomper in Dumoulin. The route is also a descent which also favors Dumoulin.

Remember the 1989 Tour de France?

Well, Laurent Fignon was already celebrating a 50sec lead over Greg Lemond going  finale into the 25km ITT, which was a drop off from start to finish, very similar to this year. But the American overhauled the Frenchman, who recently passed away, by 58sec winning the Tour by a single digit 8sec.

Quintana has 53sec lead over Dumoulin and cocky to say that its enough cushion for him to win the Giro. But Quintana, well, you will never confuse Quintana with Fignon when it comes to a race against the clock, is not Fignon when it comes to the race of truth. LeMond, who had just recovered from being shot in a hunting accident, was using a massive gear, a 55x12 chainrings. Dumoulin, a younger and fresher rider, could probably be using a 56x11.

In the stage 10 40k, ITT, Dumoulin had beaten Quintana by 2.53min, Nibali by 2.07, Pinot by  2.42 and Zakarin by 2.19. Lets just say that based on that TT, Dumoulin will gain 2.10 over Quintana and win this  Giro by about a minute. As for the rest, the best they could do is for the second and third step on the podium.

Then there is also “Toilet-gate”. Earlier, Quitana had crashed and following the unwritten rule of cycling, Dumoulin told the peloton has to wait for Nibali to get back. But on stage 16, the queen stage, and with 30km to go, Dumoulin made an unexpected trip to the sidewalk for a nature break and his four rivals never allowed him to get back. So instead of enjoying a 2.41min lead, out was whittled down to 31sec! This led to polemics after the race between Dumoulin and Nibali. Although it was eventually “settled” the following day, I’m sure it had a lasting effect on Dumoulin to stamp his authority by using  the incident as a motivation.

Quintana will lose this Giro for he has not shown the strength he used to have. Nibali doesn’t have the power to win by talent alone, he sometimes has to be a recipient of a rival’s bad luck to win.  As for Pinot and Zakarin, they don’t have the experience just yet. Pinot needs to work on his TT and Zakarin has to work on everything.

That’s why my horse is Tom Dumoulin.