Donald Trump is running away from Iran. He has just been defeated, by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and by a ghost, Iran’s proclaimed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, assassinated by Israel on the first day of war, Feb. 28, 2026.
Believed to be badly wounded, Mojtaba, in past 100 days, has never been seen – in video, pictures or online – to be alive. The mirage defeated the world’s mightiest military, the United States, by enduring 66 days of vicious missile, drone and bombing attacks. About 3,636 died on the Iranian side, including at least 1,701 civilians. The US admitted to 13 dead. In Israel’s side airwar against Lebanon, about 1,000 died. Across the globe, 20 million crossed the poverty line because of the war.
Trump had to eat humble piece in negotiating with the haughty Iranians. The war was unprovoked, illegal, unpopular, grossly irresponsible, backed by lies and lies and lies. It cost the US more than $200 billion, equivalent to 40 percent of the Philippine GDP. It depleted America’s arsenal of missiles, drones, bombs and other munitions, making it unprepared for the next real global war, with China when it invades Taiwan (or the Philippines?).
Trump signed the three-page, 1,026-word, 14-point memo of understanding June 17 in France’s Versailles Palace – (site of the World War I surrender ceremony). Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian signed in Iran.
“There’s no mention of regime change, no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles or its support for proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program are supposed to be worked out in future negotiations,” notes The New York Times wryly.
“Instead, there are lots of promises of money. Iran gets to resume oil exports immediately. If the talks go well, the US will also lift sanctions, unfreeze assets worth tens of billions of dollars and help create a $300-billion fund for reconstruction and development. The deal sets up a 60-day ceasefire for more negotiations, and fighting could flare up again,” sneered NYT.
Iran has about $120-billion assets overseas frozen as a punishment for its nuclear ambitions (400 kilos of 60 percent grade uranium, one level below atomic bomb). It also used to export $45 billion worth of oil yearly. Add $300 billion of development or reconstruction fund, the $165-billion frozen assets and oil exports and the billions it expects to earn from toll fees on the Strait of Hormuz, you get close to 1.5x the value of Iran’s GDP of $300 billion.
The world will pay Iran 1.5x the value of its economic output in a year. In return, Brent oil has fallen from $110 per barrel last May to $80 this June and average $90 this July-September. Cheap oil will not return soon, until after a year, according to analysts.
Trump has settled the Iran war using an old-fashioned habit – bribing people. “Giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea,” protested Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican.
Meanwhile, Mojtaba and the IRGC are thrilled. Trump agreed to a deal “out of desperation,” wrote Mojtaba, adding in-person negotiations with America do not mean “acceptance of the enemy’s position.” For its part, the IRGC can use “reconstruction” money to rebuild its war arsenal and continue its war of repression against its own citizens suffering from unprecedented poverty, what with inflation raging at 113 percent. (Iran should hire our BSP Gov Eli Remo to do wonders).
The Institute for Economics and Peace estimated a $2.2-trillion hit to the global economy by the Iran war. The World Bank cut global economic growth to 2.5 percent, the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricted 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and 20 percent of LNG passing through to the strategic chokepoint. This triggered massive spikes in prices of oil, fuel, fertilizers, petrochemicals and nearly everything that uses oil and its byproducts in its manufacture or delivery.
The war disrupted the jobs and lives of 2.5 million Filipinos working in the Middle East, resulting in reduced remittance for months. They earned $15 billion a year. Economic growth will slump to three percent this year, from 4.4 percent in 2025 – mainly because of underspending because of the flood control scandal.
In the first quarter, GDP growth halved to 2.8 percent from 5.4 percent in January-March 2025. Every percentage point drop in GDP rate results in up to 500,000 job losses. Divide 500,000 by four (for one quarter because the war lasted three months), you get 125,000 jobs lost during the war.
Additionally, inflation surged to 7.2 percent in April, prompting the interest rate-hike trigger-happy Bangko Sentral – home to the world’s highest paid central bankers – to raise interest rates by 25 points. Wala kang kupas, Gov Eli Remo. The last time the BSP combatted inflation, it more than tripled interest rates to 6.5 percent, forcing a cut in GDP growth by one percent and a loss of 500,000 jobs.
Baker Institute for Public Policy estimates that about 30 percent of Philippine primary energy supply comes from oil, virtually all of it imported. The country’s transportation system is almost entirely oil-based. With the energy shortage, “the Philippines is exceptionally exposed. Incomes are generally low, the petroleum intensity of moving goods across a large archipelago is significant and domestic oil refining capacity is limited.”
Ricky Razon is a trillionaire
Enrique K. Razon Jr., 66, is the Philippines’ first certifiable trillionaire. He is worth P1.198 trillion ($19.85 billion), the equivalent of 61.85 percent of his company, International Container Terminal Services Inc., which has a market cap of P1.938 trillion ($32.09 billion).
Ricky is 2.5x ahead of SMIC’s billionaires whose company is worth only P770 billion.
The ICTSI chairman and president reported: “ICTSI delivered a robust start to 2026, with double-digit growth in revenues, EBITDA and net income, reflecting the strength of our diversified global portfolio and disciplined execution across our operations.”
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