The ongoing and coming world war

Recent events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese escalation in the South China Sea, and the continuing missiles tests by North Korea, are beating the drums of war.  US President Biden’s visit to Kiev and Poland on the anniversary of the Russian invasion, with the assurance of additional military and economic assistance together with the European/NATO countries to Ukraine, are unwavering support signals. Add to these the sanctions on Russia, China, and Iran that curtail their access to military and financial resources from many countries. The western alliance has upped the ante.

Russia is strengthening its cooperation with China, North Korea, and Iran to secure more war materials. Putin is also tightening his grip on Russia using propaganda to repress dissenters. He announced the strengthening of Russia’s nuclear capability with a veiled threat of using them, and withdrawing from the strategic arms limitation agreement among other nuclear powers. These, together with China and North Korea’s ongoing offensives on Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines already define the theater of war.

Wikipedia defines world war, as an international conflict which involves most of the world’s major powers. The term was used for two major conflicts that occurred in 1914-1918 (World War I) and 1939-1945 (World War II). The military, political, and economic impact and consequences of those wars were enormous and took years to recover.  World wars are also further classified as “hot wars” or “cold wars”. Hot wars, if it involves use of active armaments and shooting, and cold war if it involves sanctions and other destabilizing moves without destructive armament forces. By this definition, the conflict between the US/EU/NATO/Western Alliance against Russia/China/North Korea/Iran is already a cold world war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a “lukewarm” world war as the global impact is still limited.

Both sides in these ongoing wars are making and contemplating moves that will lead to World War III. Leopard tanks from Poland have just been delivered to Ukraine and more are coming from the UK France, Germany, and other countries. Switzerland and other European countries probably have thousands available if Russia attacks any of the NATO countries. Russia is courting China and North Korea to provide arms, ammunitions, and spare parts to the Russian army as Iran has reduced its supply. Russia has resorted to buying appliances to use their microchips as economic sanctions have limited hi-tech parts. While Russia still has huge financial revenues from oil and gas, its wealth was depleted and their economy (GDP) shrunk by 2% in 2022.

There are however positive developments. Last week, the United Nations on a vote of 141 in favor, seven opposed, and 32 abstaining, passed a non-binding resolution asking Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. The Philippines voted for the resolution while China and India abstained. While Russia won’t obey this resolution, it’s a signal of the sentiment of the majority of nations. That same week, China came up with a 12-point proposal to end the invasion which was sent to Ukraine, Russia, and the US/NATO countries. We will have to see what will come out of this. Still it indicates most countries realize the futility and the disastrous effects of third world war.

Given today’s developments and geo-political scenario, there’s a 70% probability there will be no World War III, and that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will end this year. There is only a 30% probability that Russia/China will provoke a nuclear war. Given the US/NATO superior firepower, there’s also a 70% probability that if there’s a World War III, the western alliance will win. There is however a 100% probability that in a nuclear war the whole world will be the loser. In a nuclear war, it will not matter who was right but who will be left.