Shifting the balance of power

The series of official visits by high American officials to the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea indicate a shift in the US foreign policy focus. For a number of decades starting the post-World War II era, the Americans were focusing on Europe and the Middle East and even Africa, and left the Asia-Pacific as a least priority area.

Because of that discernible neglect of this strategic region, China and Russia managed to gain some considerable mileage in building alliances with North Korea and other socialist countries like Vietnam, Laos, and to a certain degree, also Myanmar and Cambodia. The only countries that remained pro-US are Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, and Singapore. The Philippines under presidents Cory, FVR, Erap, GMA and PNoy were unabashedly pro-American. Only President Duterte tried to break the cycle and openly lambasted both presidents Obama and Trump and never visited the US during his term. Duterte visited Beijing and Moscow a number of times and tried to warm up to both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The three had one thing in common: The tendency to make draconian decisions on lives of conscientious objectors.

PBBM is trying to be friends with both the US and China, visibly attempting to get the best of both worlds. He should be reminded of what Confucius said: A man who chases two rabbits will most likely end up not catching any of them. If we analyze deeper however, PBBM is really pro-US although he loves to say that at 17 or so he was sent together with his mom as informal envoys to Beijing. BBM would tell how Mao received them warmly. Well, to us, it was like a giant panda kissing his next meal. BBM is wiser now that he is president and not that naive. He knows China is gradually stealing our maritime resources and pushing its borders towards our exclusive maritime zones.

The American foreign policy in Asia Pacific had been hitherto built around what it calls the policy of strategic ambiguity. It’s really a tactic in warfare to confuse the enemy. For instance, the US presidents Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George Bush openly declared America respects and upholds the One China policy, yet they keep on giving massive support and encouragement to Taiwan to strengthen its institutions and armaments. The US also keeps on giving technical and material support to South Korea to the great consternation of North Korea and China. America is an expert poker player, so are China and Russia. They say one thing and do the exact opposite. That’s strategic ambiguity, the politically correct term for deception and deceit.

The visit last week by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin showed that PBBM agreed to bring back the US bases to the Philippines which were ejected under the administration of President Cory Aquino. This development will mark a substantial shift in the balance of power in the region. The Philippines will now be more emboldened to stand up to China even as Beijing also keeps on harassing our fishermen, and while China is building multiple permanent infrastructures in the contested islands and shoals. The presence of American navy, air force, and ground forces shall now up the ante and shall compel Beijing to respond accordingly. This may lead to peace and stability due to a balance of power attaining equilibrium or may trigger a shooting war between two superpowers.

My apprehension is when the Chinese dragon fights the American eagle, the Philippine kitten may be caught in between. When the elephants collide, mice may be trampled. The Philippines may end up suffering the biggest collateral damage when the giants play their games. It already happened in World War II. The fight was between Japan and the US but it was the Philippines that ended up devastated, with no less than one million lives lost. And history has a nasty habit of repeating itself.