Bold projections for the three Visayan regions

It has been said that governors have a very strong influence to make national candidates win. That is true when it comes to senatorial candidates and partylist aspirants. But for the presidential and vice presidential positions, it has been indubitably proven many times that the electorate would vote for the governor but would choose their own president and vice president.

Let us start in Region 6, the Western Visayas region. The kingpins here are Senator Franklin Drilon, the Defensors, the Garins, the Tupazes, and the Lacsons in Negros Occidental and the Teveses in Negros Oriental. Running for governor in Aklan are William Lachica of the KBL, Jose E. Miraflores of PDP Laban, and independent candidates Willy Tolentino and Rayam Torres. Miraflores is leading. In Antique, incumbent Rhodora Cadiao of the NUP is facing PDP Laban's Vicente Fedelicio and independent candidate Mayong Petinglay. Cadiao is poised to win. In Capiz, Esteban Contreras of PDP Laban is being challenged by Lakas' Fredemil Castro and independent candidate Elmer Villasis. Contreras is strong but Castro is getting stronger.

In Guimaras, Jose R. Castro of the KBL is facing Joaquin C. Nava of the NUP, who is expected to win. In Iloilo, the incumbent Arthur Defensor Jr. is unbeatable with the token challenge by independent candidate Nolbert Gil. In Negros Occidental, incumbent Eugenio J. Lacson of the NPC is too strong vis-a-vis challengers PDDS' Juan Orola Jr. and independent candidate Ma. Socorro S. Okada. In Negros Oriental, the Degamos (Roel of the NP and independent candidate Grego) are fighting each other thus giving hopes to the LP's Edward Mark Macias and the NPC's Pryde Henry Teves some comfort. In Cebu, we know that Gwen Garcia is unbeatable and Ace Durano has no chance at all. But, lately, Ace has been gaining some ground.

In Bohol, Art Yap of PDP Laban, is being seriously challenged by Erico Aumentado of the NPC, but I predict that the incumbent shall win, given Yap's sterling performance, and because the opposition votes will be splintered by two independent candidates; Hercules Castillo and Concepcion Flores. In Siquijor, two Villas are contesting the position, and the contest is too close to call. In Leyte, Jericko Petilla of the PDP Laban can sleep well with no worries. His opponents, Avito Opiniano of the PRP and independent candidate Romulo Gacgacao have no Chinaman's chance. The same is true in Biliran. Gerard Espina of the NP is going to make his opponent Edgardo Ambe of PROMDI eat the dust. In Southern Leyte, nobody dared to run against Damian Mercado. He is unopposed.

In Northern Samar, incumbent Edwin Ongchuan of the NUP is way ahead of two independent candidates, Hildegardes Dineros and Rolando Nitor. In Samar (western), Sharee Ann Tan of the NP is very hard to beat by Gemma Soza of the NUP. In Eastern Samar, incumbent Ben Evardone of the PDP Laban is unbeatable by Petronilo Abuyen Jr. of the PFP, Orlando Enoviso of the PDDS, and independent candidate Alfredo Hobayan.

Regardless of who shall prevail in the local elections, Vice President Leni Robredo is poised to win in the three regions. In Region 6, Western Visayas, all the five provinces gave Leni an overwhelming victory in 2016. The same is true in the four provinces of Region 7, Central Visayas. In Region 8, eastern Visayas, only Biliran and Leyte voted for Bongbong Marcos but Leni was second. In all the three provinces of Samar, Marcos was stunningly beaten by Robredo. The trajectory points to a repeat of that in 2022. If you have a different projection, then show it now and prove it to me.

My data is based on surveys made on the ground. It is not about me or you. This is about trends and prospects.