Bold predictions for Cebu local polls in 2022

The quality (or lack of it) of the local candidates' post Odette responses,  in addition to the incumbents' overall performance (outstanding or dismal), will be the determining factors for the outcome of the May 9, 2022 local polls in Cebu. Of course, these two tipping points can be altered by such traditional factors as money and logistics, organization, campaign strategy and campaign message.

Based on all these, I am putting my neck on the line to make the following very daring predictions: First, incumbent governor Gwen Garcia will beat Ace Durano by a ratio of 60 to 70 percent for Gwen and only 30 to 40 percent for Durano. Gwen will win in almost all congressional districts, except only in the fifth, for sentimental reasons. But even in the fifth, Durano's lead there will be minimized by the very passionate, aggressive and well-oiled campaign of Gwen's son-in-law, incumbent congressman Duke Frasco and the massive support of Liloan's mayor Cristina Garcia-Frasco for her mom.  We hasten to add that Vice Governor Junjun Davide will win with a whopping 80 to 90 percent of the votes. I have a caveat though. It is still too early. Things are volatile, trends can change when a new variant or game changer comes along. 

In the first district, Gov. Gwen will win with 60 to 65 percent of the votes. Rhea Gullas, being unopposed, needs only one vote to formalize her coronation.The problem for the Guullases is Talisay where Samsam is poised to win but with a very strong challenge by his vice mayor, Allan Bucao. There will be some barangays that will give Samsam a big headache. The second district will be won by Governor Gwen but Durano will get between 40 to 48 percent here because this is his teammate's turf. Davide will help Durano a lot but Gwen is also very strong here especially in Dalaguete, Boljoon, Oslob, Alcoy and Santander. Cong. Willy Caminero, being term limited, will win the Argao mayorship hands down but Tata Salvador will find it very difficult to beat Edcel Galeos. 

In the third district, Governor Gwen may get 80 percent of the votes here and Congressman PJ Garcia, like Rea Gullas, can sleep soundly without delivering a single speech. The deputy speaker can get more than 90 percent of the votes. The fourth district is a big headache for the incumbent Janice Salimbangon. Celestino "Tining" Martinez III is giving Salimbangon a run for her money. The Martinezes had been running against the Salimbangons for the longest time but this one is a contest to watch. But whoever wins here for representative won't matter to Gov. Gwen. She will have a walk in the park against Ace Durano in this northwestern Cebu district. The fifth will be very hot especially in the Camotes islands. It can be bloody.

The sixth will be won by the governor and the new reconfigured district will be an open city for all the new bets. Lollipops Ouano can sleep from now until May 10, she will wake up as the first elected representative of the independent district of Mandaue City. Lapu-Lapu City will be hotly contested by the Chans and the Radazas. At the end, Junard Chan will win the city hall but her wife can lose to Radaza's candidate. Or, it can be the other way around. Money and the barangay organization can make the difference. The most unexciting elections will be in the seventh district. Almost all the incumbents have no opponents, except token ones. The congressman, Peter John Calderon, a cousin of Ace, has a covenant with Gwen. It is up to him if '' palabra de honor'' is a stronger bond than "blood is thicker than water." 

My bold prediction overall:  80 percent of the Cebu incumbents shall win. The only ones in danger are the mayors of Argao, Barili and Lapu-Lapu City, as well as the fourth district congresswoman. All the rest are destined to stay. I can be wrong, of course, but based on my records, I have been proven right seventy percent all the time.