Why Duterte is/was leading in the surveys?

As of April 20, 2016 Duterte at 32 percent in the poll surveys for the coming May 9 election is clearly the frontrunner and the man to beat. The election is his to lose with 19 days to the day. What brought this about and how did they do this in the allotted 90 days of campaign period? The steepness of the rise equals that of Poe's ascent in the earlier months, and the recent Robredo run up in the vice presidential race.

While we cannot be sure as yet who will eventually emerge as winner in the presidential race, as history of Philippine elections have shown that upsets and changes can and may happen until the last two days, it is worth pondering and analyzing the reasons for Duterte's phenomenal rise to the top of the contenders up to that period.

Delving and sorting out the massive amount of information about the presidential race in the last three months, including the voluminous social media content available, there are three major factors causing the rise of Duterte. First is the novelty factor or his newness in the scene as opposed to the other candidates who have been in the national scene for some time. He is the "new kid in the block," and like a new brand of detergent or bath soap that is advertised and promoted by their manufacturers, there is a sudden burst of awareness of the product. In product promotion, the life cycle of awareness is from three to 12 months, and if the product lives up to its promises and expectation it becomes one of the enduring products of the manufacturer. In politics, the life cycle of national politicians is also about three to 12 months during the campaign period and is eventually restricted by the term limit of his or her position if they get elected. Everything in this world has a life cycle, be it an insect, an animal, events, personalities or even ideas. Some have shorter while others have longer life cycles. As they say, "walang forever," not even emotional love that poets say transcends time and space. Still I will concede, that there are loves that lasts a lifetime like mine to my wife. In the case of Duterte, the question is, if his awareness life cycle level will last until May 9, 2016 and if it does, will he be able to deliver on his promises and the expectations of the people in the next six years.

The second is that the Duterte attraction is some kind of protest against the "establishment and government" from the different sectors for different reasons. For some in the D and E social class, their non-inclusion in the economic growth and progress which are now more visible to them when they see all the malls and condominium constructions that do not benefit them, and the increased purchasing power enjoyed by the middle class which they do not have, make them want sudden change. For some in the middle and upper class, there is a perception of increased lawlessness and criminality that could threaten their lifestyle, which even if this is not so, makes them gravitate to a perceived strongman and crime fighter, who had succeeded in Davao City from stories that they've heard. Among the A, B and C economic classes, there is also disenchantment with the existing political families that have been exchanging seats in the last so many years, that they want change and a new name to shake up the establishment. For the millennial and the peripheral youth, Duterte is the epitome of their rebellion against their elders and the expression of their dominance of the social media versus their elders. The youth's contrarian views are just a form of expression of their new found power in the alternative social media.

Third is the ethnic factor, which is just a number of central Visayas and Mindanao voters will gravitate to Duterte because he is "Bisaya" and from Mindanao. Superimposing social classes and demographics this will still give Duterte a slight advantage.

Can Duterte maintain this lead and eventually win the presidency? That is the question.

In the 2016 US Masters Golf tournament, Jordan Spieth was leading by five strokes going to the back nine in the last day of the tournament. With nine holes to go everybody thought Spieth will win the 2016 US Master Tournament. Disaster happened and he bogeyed #10 and #11 and quadruple bogeyed #12, that by the 18th hole Willet had overtook him and was already three up. Spieth could still have tied the game if he sunk a birdie putt in the last two holes to force a playoff, but he missed them and lost the championship.

The last week before the May 9 election is still crucial as the gaps between the candidates are not very far from each other, and events may still affect the 25 percent of the voters during the week.

So it is still anybody's ball game except maybe for Santiago. Abangan!

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Here is my possible explanation of the P2 billion plus bank transactions in the Duterte account in BPI. These are contributions to his political career and especially to his seeking the Presidency. It takes P4 billion to run for President so this is obviously part of the funding. Rumors I've heard that the reason graft and corruption is minimal in Davao, is because businessmen in Davao have set up a fund that is given to Duterte monthly which he can use at his discretion and partly to instill discipline in his local government. This is the reason for his promise to increase the salaries of policemen to P100,000.00 a month. As to why he did not disclose these contributions and amounts in his SALN or his handlers were not bright enough to take care of this situation, I have no idea whatsoever.