CEBU, Philippines — Cebu City has been able to pull down its reproduction number, a measure of the rate of coronavirus transmission, from 1.8 in early January to now below 1.25, though COVID-19 numbers remain high, latest data from OCTA Research Group showed.
“Just after Christmas, the reproduction number (in Cebu City) was actually less than one, then it suddenly grew in a matter of about two weeks. Very quickly, it grew to 1.8 and it has stabilized since then and right now it’s actually decreasing,” said University of the Philippines Professor Gudo David in yesterday’s virtual presser.
Reproduction number or R0 matters since it indicates how fast the pandemic is spreading.
“If the number is greater than 1.0, it means it is spreading and if it’s less than 1.0, it’s slowing down. And the higher the number, the higher the rate that it’s spreading. In general this gives the average of number of infected individuals,” Guido explained.
Stated differently, if the R0 is 1.0, it means each infected individual will infect one other person on average.
Guido attributed the downtrend in Cebu City’s R0 to the local government’s implementation of stricter measures.
Guido said he expects the R0 to go down further below 1.0 as infection rate drops as well.
However, OCTA Research warned that it’s still above 1, and thus, it is not surprising that cases are still up.
Currently, Cebu City’s active cases are at 3,151, including 151 new ones, according to data from the Department of Health-7.
Another OCTA Research group fellow, Ranjit Singh Rye, for his part, said that even as Cebu City is not yet out of the woods, the situation is now more controlled than what it was three weeks ago.
Cebu City, Rye noted, is better prepared than other LGUs and has a working force from the local government to the civil society and the health care workers fight to contain the virus day in and day out. — JMD (FREEMAN)