Do-or-die showdown

Today marks the last play date of the EASL regular season with Meralco battling Ryukyu to dispute a playoff spot at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. It’s a do-or-die duel. If the Golden Kings win by any margin, Meralco is gone. If the Bolts prevail by six or more, Ryukyu is out the door.

The situation is tricky for Meralco. If the Bolts win by five or less, Ryukyu is safely in the playoffs. There are three groups of four in the 12-team league, now on its third straight home-and-away season. Meralco and Ryukyu are in Group B where the Golden Kings lead the pack with a 4-1 mark, followed by Taoyuan at 4-2, Meralco at 3-2 and Macau at 0-6. The top two placers advance to the playoffs in Macau on March 18-22. If Meralco wins, the Bolts move up to 4-2, creating a triple tie for first. Point differentials will break the logjam.

Counting scores involving the three teams in a possible deadlock, Taoyuan is +9, Ryukyu +1 and Meralco -10. If Meralco beats Ryukyu by six, the Bolts’ point differential improves to -4 and Ryukyu falls to -5. A margin less than six will leave Meralco out of contention.

No PBA team has ever qualified for the EASL playoffs since the home-and-away format was introduced in 2023-24. In the first season, TNT and Meralco both posted identical 1-5 records. In the second season, San Miguel Beer went 0-6 and Meralco, 2-4. This season, only Meralco is representing the PBA and has notched the most wins by a PBA team in EASL history.

Meralco is on a three-game win streak but will face Ryukyu without leading scorer Rondae Hollis-Jefferson who suffered an Achilles tear in the Bolts’ win over Macau last December. RHJ will be replaced by 6-10 Haitian Cady Lalanne. Also missing in action is Chris Newsome who went down with a knee injury in the PBA semis. Back are Ismael Romero, Iran’s Sina Vahedi, Justin Brownlee, Chris Banchero, Cliff Hodge, CJ Cansino, Bong Quinto, Aaron Black and Brandon Bates. A key addition is two-time US NCAA assist leader Jason Brickman. The last spot could go to rookie Vic Magbuhos.

This will be the sixth all-time meeting between Meralco and Ryukyu with the Golden Kings winning four of the last five. The only Bolts victory came via a 97-88 OT decision in 2023.

Ryukyu is bannered by 5-9 spitfire Ryuichi Kishimoto who’s averaging a team-high 15.6 points, 5.0 assists and 25.4 minutes, shooting 36.7 percent from three and 93.3 percent from the line. Burly NBA 6-9 veteran Jack Cooley, 34, is on his seventh season with the Golden Kings, averaging 15.4 points and 12.7 rebounds. Naturalized 6-11 player Alex Kirk, 34, is also an NBA vet averaging 15.2 points and 9.2 rebounds. The other world import is either 6-5 former New York Knick Damyean Dotson or 6-7 former Orlando Magic Vic Law. Aside from Kishimoto, Ryukyu’s crack locals include 6-4 Japanese national player Ryo Sadohara hitting 46.7 percent from three, 6-0 Shota Onodera and 6-4 Masahiro Waki. The Golden Kings are coming off four wins in a row.