Will trends reverse?

In PBA history, San Miguel Beer and Barangay Ginebra faced off only once in a Game 7 and it happened back in the 2009 Fiesta Conference finals with Gabe Freeman battling David Noel in the import matchup. The Beermen won, 90-79 and Jonas Villanueva took MVP honors. Among Villanueva’s teammates were Dondon Hontiveros, Danny Ildefonso, Marc Pingris and Olsen Racela. San Miguel’s coach was Siot Tanquingcen. Ginebra’s lineup included Rafi Reavis, Jayjay Helterbrand, Mark Caguioa and Eric Menk with Jong Uichico as coach.

After 16 years, San Miguel and Ginebra will meet again in a Game 7. The stage is set for the Philippine Cup semifinal clincher at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. It’s a winner-take-all showdown with the survivor advancing to the finals against TNT. The Last Dance begins Sunday and TNT is reporting fresh from a six-day rest.

PBAologist Fidel Mangonon notes that Ginebra has lost its last two Games 7 after winning its first three under coach Tim Cone. In contrast, San Miguel has won its last two Games 7, including seven of its previous eight since 2015 under coach Leo Austria. If the trend holds, San Miguel will make it three straight Game 7 wins. But Ginebra is a tough nut to crack. In the Governors and Commissioner’s Cups this season, Ginebra went all the way to the finals only to lose twice to TNT. The Barangay is itching for payback but San Miguel is in the way.

San Miguel bowed to Ginebra in six semis games in the Governors’ Cup and failed to make it to the playoffs in a monumental Commissioner’s Cup collapse. This season, before the Philippine Cup, San Miguel lost to Ginebra in five of eight games.

In the semis, it’s been a conflict of offense versus defense. In Ginebra’s three wins, San Miguel was held to an average of 82.7 points. In San Miguel’s three wins, the Beermen normed 103.3. When Ginebra tightens the screws, San Miguel sputters. The Beermen couldn’t score more than 90 points in Ginebra’s three wins.

In Game 6, Ginebra limited San Miguel to 39.5 percent from the floor and had seven more assists to accentuate Cone’s emphasis on team play. LA Tenorio’s decisive triple came from a Scottie Thompson assist. Six Ginebra players logged at least 30 minutes, an indication of a short rotation while only two Beermen checked in for at least 30. Jaime Malonzo and RJ Abarrientos were a combined 0-of-13 from three yet Ginebra finished with more triples, 8-4 and more perimeter points, 42-26. Tenorio’s resurgence was a shot in Ginebra’s arm as he came to the rescue to force a Game 7 with an 88-87 win.

In Game 5, San Miguel hit 50.6 percent from the floor, had more assists, 20-17 and more perimeter points, 41-29. The Beermen rode the hot hands of CJ Perez and Jericho Cruz who combined for 58 points in a 103-92 victory. In a high-scoring contest, San Miguel has the edge.

Barometers for Game 7 are Japeth Aguilar and Perez. In Ginebra’s three wins, Aguilar averaged 17.3 points but in its three losses, the norm was down to nine. Perez hit at a 20.3 clip in San Miguel’s three wins and 13 in three losses. How they perform in Game 7 could be critical.