Battle royale in PBA Finals

It’s a championship duel made in heaven. The PBA’s No. 1 offensive team TNT takes on back-to-back defending Governors’ Cup titlist Barangay Ginebra in a best-of-seven Finals that’s guaranteed to go down to the wire every single game starting at the Smart Araneta Coliseum today. Ginebra has won nine of its last 10 outings and TNT, 12 of its last 13. TNT’s last title came in the 2021 Philippine Cup. Ginebra is making its fifth Governors’ Cup Finals appearance since 2015-16. The collision course was inevitable.

Ginebra coach Tim Cone has won 25 championships since making his PBA debut on the Alaska bench in 1989 and 10 were Governors’ Cups. TNT coach Jojo Lastimosa is filling in for Chot Reyes who has taken a back seat to focus on Gilas and in his first season on the job, has racked up a 14-2 record. In the elims, TNT defeated Ginebra, 114-105, with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson outscoring Justin Brownlee, 34 to 27. Both teams have squared off in three Finals so far. Ginebra won, 4-2, in the 2004-05 Philippine Cup then TNT prevailed, 4-2, in the 2010-11 Commissioner’s Cup. In the 2020 Clark bubble Philippine Cup, Ginebra clinched, 4-1.

Here are 10 factors that could decide the outcome of the series.

• Firepower. TNT averages 115.9 points and has scored less than 100 points in only two of 16 contests. RHJ is hitting at a 30.4 clip, RR Pogoy 19.1, Mikey Williams 17.6, Calvin Oftana 13.6 and Jayson Castro, 11.3. Ginebra isn’t far behind, averaging 110.8 points and is No. 1 in three-point shooting (38.2 percent) and total field goal percentage (50.6). TNT’s artillery is fully loaded and the Tropa has the edge in a high-scoring engagement. Advantage: TNT.

• Teamwork. Chemistry sets Ginebra apart from others and it’s reflected in ball movement. Ginebra is No. 1 in average assists (29.9). Cone’s emphasis is playing together as a unit, covering for each other. Brownlee, Christian Standhardinger and Scottie Thompson are issuing close to a combined 20 dimes, a testament to their selflessness even as they’re high-grade scorers. Advantage: Ginebra.

• Coaching. Both Cone and Lastimosa never show up for a game unprepared. They’re homework specialists. Cone’s experience will be evident as the series progresses as he’s a master of adjustments. Lastimosa knows what it’s like to be a player in a pressure cooker and it’s a plus. But even if Lastimosa has worked with Cone as a player and assistant coach in the past, he still has a lot to learn from the PBA’s winningest tactician. Advantage: Ginebra.

• Depth. Cone employs a short rotation with his starters playing heavy minutes. Four Ginebra players are averaging at least 30 minutes compared to TNT’s three. Brownlee is the only player on either side logging over 40 minutes a game. Poy Erram’s return from injury is a major boost to TNT’s frontline. Castro has come off the bench every game this conference and that’s a luxury. LA Tenorio’s absence is a big blow to Ginebra. Advantage: TNT.

• Hunger. TNT has never won a Governors’ Cup trophy. It’s something Lastimosa is hoping to capture as a rookie prize. Ginebra has won seven of 15 titles under Cone and claiming the Governors’ Cup crown is getting to be a habit. TNT is looking for its third title since the 2014-15 Commissioner’s Cup while Ginebra has won six of the PBA’s last 12 championships. Advantage: TNT.

• Import matchup. RHJ is six years younger than JB, a six-year NBA veteran and a complete player, averaging 30.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists. JB is averaging 27.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.9 assists. JB is unbeaten in six PBA Finals and fits Cone’s system like a glove. RHJ is in a class of his own and will be a handful for any one defender. Advantage: Even.

• Versatility. In a best-of-seven series, unpredictability is key and that comes with versatility. Players who excel in multiple positions on both ends are golden pieces. Thompson, the reigning MVP, exemplifies the do-it-all operator whose value is off the charts. Jamie Malonzo is another example. Advantage: Ginebra.

• Defense.  If TNT wins with offense, Ginebra wins with defense. Ginebra is giving up 102.7 points a game, compared to TNT’s 104, not much of a difference until a breakdown of Barangay’s wins reveals four came when opponents were held to less than 100. Ginebra is No. 2 in least assists allowed (20.0), No. 1 in least rebounds allowed (41.4) and No. 2 in least three-point percentage allowed (32.4). Ginebra’s individual defense doesn’t deliver a bundle of turnovers but its team effort forces opponents to 44.1 percent from the field. Advantage: Ginebra.

• Experience. JB’s familiarity with Cone’s system is a major positive. Since the 2015-16 Governors’ Cup, Cone has relied on a core featuring JB, Thompson and Japeth Aguilar. TNT’s holdovers from that conference are Castro, Kelly Williams and Matt Ganuelas-Rosser. When a game is close and the outcome depends on a last play, experience will pull it off in the clutch. Advantage: Ginebra.

• Efficiency. Ginebra’s downside is an inability to preserve possessions, ranking No. 2 in most turnovers (15.5) and giving up the second most turnover points (21.1). In contrast, TNT has the least turnovers (12.6) and No. 1 in turnover points (21). Advantage: TNT.

The tally shows Ginebra has five factors in favor, TNT four with one even. In a short series (four or five games), Ginebra has the edge. In a long series (six or seven), TNT has the advantage because of its deeper rotation.