In three of the last five PBA conferences, the championship playoffs went to a Game 7. That translates into a 60 percent incidence which means if the trend holds, there is a better than a 50-50 chance that the Governors Cup best-of-seven Finals between Barangay Ginebra and Meralco will go the distance.
Last season, two of the three conference Finals went to a Game 7. San Miguel Beer beat Alaska in seven for the Philippine Cup crown and Talk ‘N’ Text also took the full route in repulsing Rain Or Shine for the Commissioner’s Cup title. In the Governors Cup, the Beermen blanked Alaska, 4-0, to break the trend.
This season, San Miguel came back from a 0-3 deficit to stun Alaska in seven to retain the Philippine Cup crown. Two of San Miguel’s four wins came in overtime. In the Commissioner’s Cup, Rain Or Shine raced to a 3-0 lead then lost two in a row to Alaska before clinching in Game 6 of the Finals.
In the raging Governors Cup, Ginebra is a win away from capturing its first title since the 2008 Fiesta Conference. The Barangay is up, 3-2, over Meralco and coach Tim Cone could collect his 19th trophy in Game 6 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. Cone is in his first season with Ginebra. He was brought in from the Star Hotshots to put an end to Ginebra’s championship drought. Cone didn’t waste too much time in making a championship contender out of Ginebra.
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But Meralco coach Norman Black isn’t about to roll over and make way for Ginebra’s ascent to the throne. The Bolts led, 1-0 and 2-1 in the title series but now Ginebra is in the driver’s seat with two wins in a row. It’s the first time that Ginebra is ahead in the Finals. Meralco hasn’t lost three in a row this conference and Black is out to preserve that record. Twice in the eliminations, Meralco dropped two straight then roared back fighting to break the streak. First, the Bolts bowed to TNT, 98-95 and Ginebra, 107-93 then beat Rain Or Shine, 109-102. Second, Meralco lost to San Miguel, 110-106 and Star, 104-103 then turned back Mahindra, 86-83.
In Ginebra’s three wins so far in the Finals, Meralco has been limited to an average of 82 points. In Meralco’s two wins, the Bolts averaged 110.5 points. The disparity is glaring. When the scores are low and the game is defense-oriented, Ginebra wins. When the scores are high and the game is a shootout, Meralco wins. Obviously, the team that is able to play its style has the upper hand. It’s about imposing a team’s will over the other. If Ginebra limits Meralco to 90 points or less, the probability is the Bolts will lose. If Meralco scores 100 or more, the probability is Ginebra will lose.
In a coaching duel over an extended series, adjustments are critical. Black is a master at exploiting matchups while Cone is a genius at controlling tempo. Ginebra prefers to execute in a halfcourt set, deliberately and methodically. In Game 4 which Ginebra won, 88-86, the Barangay had only seven fastbreak points compared to Meralco’s 16. In Game 5 which Ginebra also won, 92-81, the Bolts scored nine fastbreak points compared to the Barangay’s zero. So in Cone’s scheme of things, transition isn’t a big deal. He’d rather grind it out then risk engaging Meralco in a shootout.
Ginebra was ahead in 32:49 minutes and Meralco in 14:56 in Game 4. But entering the fourth period, Meralco was up by 16, 74-58. The Bolts, however, couldn’t sustain the lead and Ginebra escaped with a two-point win. In Game 5, Ginebra was in control from start to finish and Meralco never led. It was the first encounter in the series where one team led the entire stretch. Still, Meralco came down from 21 to trim the gap to five with three minutes left but lost steam down the stretch. Although Ginebra has won the last two outings, Meralco went down swinging.
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Black hasn’t started Jimmy Alapag at all in the series. At point guard, Jonathan Uyloan had three starts and Baser Amer and Anjo Caram one each. In Meralco’s two wins, Alapag averaged 15.5 points. In Meralco’s three losses, his average dipped to 3.7. In Game 4, Alapag went scoreless in 8:30 minutes and in Game 5, he fired eight in 31:46. It’s in the point guard position where Meralco is taking a beating. Alapag has to come to the rescue.
Jared Dillinger’s absence has disrupted Black’s rotation. He’s now sat out the last seven Meralco games. If he’s reactivated, Dillinger could make a difference at the three spot and put pressure on Ginebra’s Joe De Vance. Durham was limited to a Finals-low 20 points in Game 5 and if Meralco hopes to force a Game 7, he’ll have to score at least 30 in Game 6 to keep the Bolts’ offense humming.
De Vance’s elevation as a starter the last two games was a checkmate play for Cone who’s veered away from playing small at least at the onset to prevent mismatches on switches. In Game 4, Sol Mercado came off the bench while in Game 5, it was Scottie Thompson who did. Cone’s backcourt trio of L. A. Tenorio, Mercado and Thompson combined for 15 of Ginebra’s 28 assists with no turnover. The unselfish play was reflected in Ginebra’s 52 percent field goal shooting. It’s also no coincidence that in the last two games which Ginebra won, Japeth Aguilar has broken out of a slump to average 17.5 points.
The re-emergence of the Fast and the Furious was another factor. JayJay Helterbrand celebrated his 40th birthday by hitting 4-of-4 field goals, including three triples, all in the fourth period, to key Ginebra’s win in Game 4 last Friday. Mark Caguioa averaged eight points in the last two games so he, too, has contributed to the Ginebra surge.
Attendance for Game 5 was 22,196 which matched the figure in Game 4 of the Ginebra-San Miguel Beer semifinal series. With the prospect of Ginebra clinching in Game 6 tonight, the fans will come out in droves for sure. And if Meralco pushes it to a Game 7 on Friday, expect the Big Dome to be packed to the rafters.