Balance of power

In the UAAP senior men’s basketball ranks, there have been three different schools winning the championship the last three seasons. Ateneo took it in 2012, blanking UST, 83-78 and 65-62, in the finals, for the Blue Eagles’ fifth title in a row. Then, La Salle reigned in 2013, losing to the Growling Tigers in Game 1, 73-72, then surging back to win two straight, 77-70 and 71-69 in overtime to clinch the best-of-three finals. Last season, it was NU’s turn to sit on the throne, repulsing FEU, 62-47 and 75-59 after losing 75-70 in Game 1 of the finals.

This year, the top contenders are UST and FEU. Neither has won a championship in the last three years. In fact, FEU hasn’t captured a title since turning back La Salle, 75-73 and 73-71, in the 2005 finals and UST hasn’t won since defeating Ateneo, 87-71 and 76-74 in overtime after losing 73-71 in Game 1 of the 2006 finals.

At the moment, the Tigers are on top of the standings with an 11-3 mark, assured of a twice-to-beat edge in the Final Four. FEU is breathing down UST’s neck at 10-2 with two games left in the Tamaraws schedule – NU at the Mall of Asia Arena tomorrow and La Salle at the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Wednesday. A sweep will catapult FEU to the pole position over UST.

It could get complicated for FEU if the Tamaraws lose to the Bulldogs and Archers and Ateneo beats UE tomorrow. That would drop FEU’s record to 10-4 and elevate the Eagles to the same mark. A tie for second place will mean a one-game playoff between FEU and Ateneo. In the double-round eliminations, FEU beat Ateneo twice, 88-64 last Sept. 6 and 66-61 last Oct. 11.

If FEU wins one and loses one, the Tamaraws will finish at 11-3, tying UST for first place. In this case, the quotient system will apply to break the deadlock. The Tigers beat the Tamaraws twice in the eliminations, 72-71 last Sept. 9 and 85-76 last Nov. 7 so in a two-way logjam, it will be UST claiming the No. 1 spot. That would mean UST playing No. 4 and FEU playing No. 3 in the Final Four, both with a twice-to-beat advantage.

If the Tamaraws win over NU and La Salle, they move up to No. 1 at 12-2, relegating UST to No. 2. In the first round of eliminations, FEU scuttled La Salle, 93-75, last Sept. 13 and trimmed the Bulldogs, 61-59, last Oct. 7. NU, the defending champion, will improve to 7-7 with a victory over FEU and put pressure on La Salle to beat the Tamaraws on Wednesday to keep the Archers’ hopes for a Final Four appearance alive.

The Archers are now tied with NU at 6-7. If the Bulldogs beat FEU and La Salle loses to the Tamaraws, NU pockets the last ticket to the Final Four. If the Bulldogs and Archers win over the Tamaraws, they slug it out in a one-game playoff for the fourth slot in the Final Four.

UE could still figure in the battle for a Final Four slot. The Red Warriors aren’t out of contention. If UE beats Ateneo tomorrow and UP on Wednesday, the Warriors will raise their record to 6-8. If FEU beats NU and La Salle, there will be a triple tie for fourth with the three teams showing identical 6-8 records. In this case, NU and UE will face off in an eliminator for the right to play La Salle for the last Final Four ticket. That’s because in a three-way tie, La Salle has a +11 factor while NU is -6 and UE, -5.

UE hasn’t won a UAAP title since the Final Four era began in 1993-94. The Warriors’ last championship came in 1985-86 so it’s been a long drought. UST was in the finals in 2012 and 2013, frustrated twice and FEU was thwarted in the finals last season. They’ve been close to making it all the way over the last three years.

UST, however, wasn’t in the Final Four last season as NU, FEU, Ateneo and La Salle made it. The Bulldogs overcame UE, 51-49, to sneak into the Final Four as the No. 4 seed and beat Ateneo twice, 78-74 and 65-63, to barge into the finals. FEU wasn’t in the Final Four in 2012 as Ateneo, UST, La Salle and NU advanced.   The Tamaraws were eliminated by La Salle, 71-68, in the Final Four in 2013 but came back last season to extend NU to the limit before bowing out in the finals.

FEU is losing five key players after this season. Mac Belo, Mike Tolomia, Francis Tamsi, Roger Pogoy and Monbert Arong are playing out their last year of eligibility. At UST, three standouts are also ending their collegiate career – Kevin Ferrer, Ed Daquioag and Karim Abdul. Belo, Tolomia, Pogoy, Ferrer and Daquioag will likely be first round picks in the next PBA draft. It’s no wonder that FEU and UST are fighting tooth and nail to capture the crown. They’re hungry for the title. It’ll be the last chance for their stars to exit with a championship.