The NCAA tightrope

The road to the top of the NCAA narrowed greatly going into yesterday’s Final Four, and how. Though the top four teams were practically determined towards the end of the first round, it has been an eventful run for most of the teams involved in the hunt for both the Final Four and the wild card slot in the Philippine Collegiate Champions League (PCCL).

Initially, San Sebastian romped off with a sweep of the first round, beating even three-time champion San Beda. The Stags, under new head coach Ato Agustin, were playing fluidly, behind a solid defense, inspired play by its rookies, and the consistent scoring of guard Jimbo Aquino. However, after going more than three months and losing only a terribly physical contest against fourth-running Letran Knights, the Stags have started to fall apart.

Monday, the Stags faced the Red Lions in their final regular season match. Both teams played a tight defensive game, San Beda playing the passing lanes very well, with the bigger Rome dela Rosa containing Aquino. San Sebastian, meanwhile, made it difficult for San Beda to turn to their transition game, at least for a while. The Stags played minus power forward Gilbert Bulawan, who was thrown out of their previous game for entering the playing court. Calvin Abueva more than made up for the vacuum by yanking down 15 rebounds, though our TV stats man said he had at least 21.

In the end, though, the mental toughness of the Stags was tested and found wanting. San Beda handed them only their second defeat in 18 games, and pulled them into a tie for first. The tie had to be broken to determine who would be number one and face a depleted Letran side, and who would be number two and meet JRU. But both San Beda and San Sebastian would carry a twice-to-beat advantage going into the next round.

Wednesday, they went at it again. It took two and half minutes for San Sebastian to score, and almost twice as long for San Beda to get a bucket. The first quarter ended with each team scoring only six points. San Beda, though was straining to run, and eventually did. San Sebastian struggled to score. At halftime, the Stags’ confidence started to wane.

In the third quarter, Aquino (who averaged 20.9 points per game going into their matches) was whistled for what seemed to be a punch to the ribs of San Beda’s Jake Pascual. Aquino was suspended from yesterday’s game, and dashed his chances of being named tournament MVP. Without their leading scorer and veteran, San Sebastian looked for more leaders, and found them in the young forward tandem of Ronald Pascual and Abueva. But after closing the gap to one, they ran out of miracles.

Now, in the Final Four, the Red Lions are smacking their lips at the prospect of a physical but undersized and undermanned Letran squad that has not beaten them in their last four attempts. The Knights lost Rey Guevarra (15.7 points per game) to an ACL injury in their second-round meeting with San Beda. Guevarra adds a greater dimension to the Knights offense, with his ability to slash to the hoop and hit the three-pointer. In one game, Guevarra scored 27 points, RJ Jazul scored 27, and the rest of the team accounted for 26. That’s a lot to make up for.

San Beda has been able to live off its size and experience. The guards have not been consistent, but the bigs have saved the day quite often, more so in the second round. The combinations of Sudan Daniel, Pascual and Bam Gamalinda have proven a defensive nightmare for other teams, and they have hardly felt the loss of JayR Taganas. San Beda’s fate, though, seems anchored on its veteran point guard, Borgie Hermida, who has finally recovered from recurring leg injuries. When Hermida plays well, the Red Lions win.

In the other match-up, the big question is the fragile state of mind of San Sebastian. The Golden Stags, prior to yesterday’s games, lost back-to-back games this week, for the first time this season. With less than 48 hours to prepare against a rested Jose Rizal team at full strength, how would they do? Jose Rizal University is led by the other MVP contender, John Wilson, who has been on a scoring and rebounding tear. Wilson has only had one bad game this season, the only time he scored in single digits. JRU, last year’s runner-up, is aching to get back into the finals, and will accept nothing less. They can run, have the size at every position, and now have a healthy Joe Etame, the 6’8” rookie countryman of John Nchotu Njei. He adds another dimension to their play, allowing outgoing center James Sena the luxury of playing power forward.

The road narrows even more.