Numbers don't lie

More than any other game so far in the PBA Fiesta Conference best-of-7 Finals, tomorrow’s tiebreaker will be the most coveted. San Miguel Beer and Barangay Ginebra are deadlocked at two wins apiece with Game 5 providing the winner a huge psychological lift and a twice-to-beat advantage heading to the homestretch.

If the trend of victory continues, Ginebra should take Game 5 – but not if San Miguel can help it. The Kings won Games 1 and 3 while the Beermen, Games 2 and 4. The betting is if the series ends in six, San Miguel will clinch (which means the Beermen will win three in a row) but if the series goes to a Game 7, the Kings will reign.

Every encounter in the Finals has been a classic.

In Game 1, Ginebra’s guards delivered a combined 70 points and the Kings knocked down 14-of-35 triples to win, 102-96, as coach Joseph Uichico controlled the tempo from start to finish.

In Game 2, San Miguel’s frontliners went to work. The Beermen dominated the boards, 57-40, and had a convincing edge in second-chance points, 19-9, to coast to a 95-78 decision. Defense brought down Ginebra which shot only .342 from the field and was held to 14 points in the fourth period.

Then came Eric Menk’s resurgence. Lacking an inside presence in Games 1 and 2, Ginebra found a savior in Menk who poured in 16 points in 17 minutes off the bench as San Miguel, feeling the absence of suspended forwards Marc Pingris and Danny Ildefonso, fell apart. The Kings shot .500 from the floor – the highest any team has registered in the series – and buried 13-of-30 triples to stamp their class in Game 3, 116-103.

Game 4 was just as dramatic. Ginebra import David Noel missed three free throws to preserve San Miguel’s two-point lead with less than a minute left and the Beermen padded their cushion to four with two foul shots. But Noel atoned for his free throw lapse by sinking a triple on the next play, cutting San Miguel’s margin to one. Mike Cortez sank 1-of-2 free throws and Ginebra got back possession, time down to 9.7 seconds. Alas, the Kings had no timeout left and looking disorganized, they went to Chico Lanete (Jay-Jay Helterbrand watched from the bench with a strained hamstring) for an awkward triple. Ronald Tubid took the rebound at quartercourt but instead of going for a two-pointer to send it into overtime, opted to bring the ball beyond the three-point line for a no-chance attempt. San Miguel held on to prevail, 106-104.

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Timeout management is critical in a tight series. Uichico had none left when the Kings got back the ball, down by two with 9.7 ticks to go – a lot of time remaining. He had used up his timeouts and couldn’t stop the play for the Kings to advance the inbound, saving a few more seconds to execute in the halfcourt. A similar situation haunted San Miguel coach Siot Tanquingcen in Game 2 of the Burger King semifinal series where he called three straight timeouts, exhausted his allocation and could’ve used a ceasefire to plot out the final play. As it turned out, the Whoppers capitalized on the Beermen’s predicament to win, 116-113.

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The stats in the Finals show glaring constants in the games that the Kings and Beermen have won so far. In Games 1 and 3 which Ginebra took, the Kings hit consistently from the three-point arc, had more turnover points and their bench was all fired up. The Kings were plus-4 in turnover points and plus-15 in bench scoring in Game 1 and plus-9 in turnover points and plus-32 in bench scoring in Game 3. Ginebra also shot at least .400 from three-point distance and averaged 13.5 triple makes.

In Games 2 and 4 which San Miguel won, the key was rebounding. The Beermen were plus-17 in rebounds and plus-10 in second chance points in Game 2 and plus-4 in rebounds and plus-15 in second chance points in Game 4.

What the numbers indicate is for San Miguel to win, Tanquingcen’s frontline must be on the ball and for Ginebra to win, Uichico’s backcourt must explode.

Menk’s return to form is both good and bad news for Ginebra. Good because finally, the Kings can parade an inside threat to draw attention from San Miguel’s defenders away from the perimeter. Bad because San Miguel would probably choose to allow Menk more touches than give Ginebra’s guards decent looks from the outside. It’s even possible that the Beermen will bait Menk to go for the shot without a double team so Ginebra’s rhythm in outside shooting is disrupted.

It’s vital for Ginebra to stay sharp from the outside. Knocking down at least 13 triples in a game would be a safe cushion. Anything less wouldn’t be scary for San Miguel. Note that Ginebra has three players hitting at least .400 from three-point range in the Finals – Noel (.406), Helterbrand (.480) and Paul Artadi (.500) compared to only one for the Beermen, Jay Washington (.600). In the series, Ginebra has drained 50-of-136 triples to San Miguel’s 32-of-88.

Another element that’s essential for the Kings is bench production. Ginebra’s relievers are averaging 41 points, compared to San Miguel’s 30.8.

For San Miguel, taking care of the boards is the main priority. The Beermen are averaging 50 rebounds and Ginebra, 42.8, with a startling edge in second-chance points, 19.8 to 11.3.

But more than boardwork, San Miguel’s defense must click to put away Ginebra. That defense was atrocious in Game 3 when Noel frolicked with a rare triple double – 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. When San Miguel won Game 2, Ginebra shot a poor .342 from the floor.

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As expected, the opposing imports are canceling each other out. Noel and Gabe Freeman are both averaging 21.8 points but it’s in rebounding where San Miguel’s import has a big edge. Freeman is more comfortable playing the interior, slashing, taking down offensive rebounds and scoring on put-backs than Noel who’s basically an outside operator.

Adjustments are making the series even more dramatic with a lot of twists and turns. Willie Wilson sat out the first two games then was tapped to shadow Washington in Game 3, more than holding his own. Washington has been Ginebra’s biggest headache because of the mismatch he creates with Freeman playing three and defended by Noel. That has forced Uichico to rely less on his three-guard formation and try to match up with three bigs instead. Wilson’s emergence as a Washington stopper has been a relief for Uichico.

The health factor will play a major role in deciding the outcome of the series. If Helterbrand, for instance, is unable to play through his hamstring strain, Ginebra will be hard-pressed to survive. The team with more healthy bodies down the stretch will enjoy a decisive advantage. The four-day break from last Wednesday’s Game 4 was a welcome respite for players from both teams to recover from their aches and pains.