PBA Finals: Desire vs destiny

The duel for the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Fiesta Conference title is about San Miguel Beer’s desire and Talk ‘N’ Text’s destiny.

For San Miguel coach Joseph Uichico, another shot at the title is a long time coming. It’s the club’s ninth Finals appearance in 15 conferences under Uichico and 27th overall since 1975 but San Miguel hasn’t won a championship in four years.

The Beermen are hungry for a crown. Their last title came in the 2001 All-Filipino Conference when Dondon Hontiveros was still playing for Tanduay and Uichico won his fifth trophy.

No team has more desire to win the championship than San Miguel whose title drought isn’t in keeping with its reputation as the PBA’s winningest franchise ever.

But for the Phone Pals, destiny is the overpowering force because in their minds, nobody can change what is written in the stars.

Two conferences back, Talk ‘N’ Text finished third. A conference ago, it wound up second. In the line of progression, the Phone Pals should place first in this conference because that is fate.

Besides, Asi Taulava got a late-minute approval to play, ending a nine-month suspension, and that could only be an ominous sign.

Before Taulava’s reinstatement, Talk ‘N’ coach Joel Banal said, "Sana makalaro (si) Asi para maganda (ang) Finals, kumpleto kasi (ang) SMB, kami kulang." A devout Christian, it was as if Banal’s prayers were answered by PBA commissioner Noli Eala’s go-signal. From the Phone Pals’ viewpoint, it had to be destiny calling.

But whether destiny will be denied or not, what’s clear is no two teams are more deserving to slug it out in the best-of-7 Finals.

Talk ‘N’ Text and San Miguel Beer were the 1-2 finishers at the end of the grueling classification round, the only automatic semifinal qualifiers who were excused from sweating it out in the wild-card phase and quarterfinals.

This is only the third time since the series-style playoffs were introduced in 1999 that the top two classification finishers advanced to the Last Dance. And in the two other series, the top seeds wound up with the title–No. 1 San Miguel over No. 2 Sta. Lucia in the 1999 Commissioner’s Cup and No. 1 Ginebra over No. 2 Talk ‘N’ Text in the 2004-05 Philippine Cup.

The trend favors Talk ‘N’ Text as the top seed in the Finals over San Miguel.

Additionally, in the last five best-of-7 Finals dating back to 2002, the team that won Game 1 ended up second. That means since the Phone Pals lost to San Miguel in the series opener last Friday, Talk ‘N’ Text still likes its chances.

But oddsmakers are far from shutting the door on San Miguel. In the history of the PBA’s best-of-7 Finals, 33 of 51 teams that won Game 1 eventually bagged the trophy–a 65 percent winning percentage. It’s an advantage that can’t be discounted because in Game 2, the pressure will be on Talk ‘N’ Text to adjust, not San Miguel.

Then there’s the startling fact that in five previous playoff encounters since 2000, San Miguel has beaten Talk ‘N’ Text without fail.

To be sure, both squads are fully loaded and armed. San Miguel’s stalwarts include two Rookies of the Year, a back-to-back MVP, a first round overall draft pick, six first round choices, a four-time Finals MVP and a two-time Finals MVP. Talk ‘N’ Text’s lineup counts on two MVPs, two Rookies of the Year, three Most Improved Player awardees, two first round overall draft picks and five first round choices.

Entering the Finals, the Phone Pals had won six of their last eight for a 15-7 record and San Miguel, six of their last seven for 15-8. They split their two previous meetings, San Miguel taking the first, 103-92, and the Phone Pals the second, 100-94.

The factors of consequence in the Finals are:

Rotation. How the players are paced and matched up. Bench depth has a bearing on a coach’s sub patterns as he tries to maintain continuity in shuffling his first, second and third unit players.

Offensive execution. How the teams run their plays. Will they run or slow it down’ Precision, communication and teamwork are essential. The emphasis is on ball movement to find the highest percentage shot with limited one-on-one clearouts. It also involves breaking down the defense and reading how to attack it.

Defensive formation. How to stop the other team from scoring. The zone is always an option but to succeed, the players must know how to deploy. Doubling the post to take away the inside threat is logical but it’s vital to rotate quickly to challenge the open man.

Intangibles. This means intensity, ability to adjust to the referees’ calls, crowd support, composure, aggressiveness, heart, fighting through adversity and will to win.

Rebounding. Control of the boards will lead to dictating the tempo which is crucial in the series because San Miguel likes to stretch the clock and Talk ‘N’ Text prefers a high-octane pace. Multiple possessions, created by offensive rebounding, are crucial in a war of attrition because they frustrate the other team.

Turnovers. How to make the most out of every possession without throwing away the opportunity to score. Points off turnovers are usually momentum makers and in a tight game, they could be back breakers.

For Talk ‘N’ Text, the keys to win are:

Make it a scoring contest. The Phone Pals are deadliest in the open court. They’re the PBA’s No. 1 offensive team, averaging 95.9 points. The team is 14-4 when it scores at least 90. For Banal, the formula is to run San Miguel to the ground and he’s got the bench depth to do it.

Get Asi involved. Once Taulava is back in the groove, Talk ‘N’ Text will be hard to beat. The danger is his presence may disrupt what the Phone Pals were used to doing before he was reactivated. In Game 1, he clearly sliced minutes from Mark Telan, Harvey Carey and Yancy de Ocampo.

Limit turnovers. The tendency is to commit errors in trying to create pace. San Miguel capitalizes on lapses and is most frightening in defensive situations. In Game 1, Jerald Honeycutt and Taulava combined for 10 of the team’s 23 turnovers.

Power inside. Banal’s big men must flex their muscles under the offensive boards for second chance attempts. That will give confidence to Jimmy Alapag, Willie Miller and Vic Pablo in taking outside shots.

Quick to kick out. Passing must be crisp and snappy once the double clamps down on Honeycutt or Taulava.

For San Miguel, the keys to win are:

Keep the scores low. When opponents are limited to 90 or less, San Miguel’s record is 14-2–that includes its 74-66 win in Game 1. Defense is the Beermen’s trump card. That’s their way to win.

Raise the roof with the two Dannys. Ildefonso’s contribution is huge in offense and defense. If Seigle returns to form, he’ll be a mismatch headache for Banal. Uichico is counting on both Dannys to be in synch.

Pressure Alapag. San Miguel’s problem is how to stray the entry pass from reaching the Phone Pals post players. The solution is to pressure the distributor and keep him from executing.

Force the Phone Pals to score outside. The idea is to play suffocating interior defense and challenge Talk ‘N’ Text to try to win from the perimeter. In Game 1, Honeycutt, Miller and Alapag were a combined 4-of-19 from three-point distance.

Composure and unpredictability. San Miguel’s poise from years of championship experience will come in handy because Talk ‘N’ Text is dynamite in creating tempo. The Phone Pals’ dizzying transition attack is a killer and triggers immediate panic. Uichico can’t be too predictable in calling his offense particularly as Banal has a deeper bench, meaning more fresh legs to disrupt motion.

With Game 1 now in the books, Talk ‘N’ Text hopes to equalize in Game 2 at the Big Dome tonight.