Win or go home

All roads lead to the Araneta Coliseum today as the four remaining contenders in the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Fiesta Conference slug it out to determine the two finalists in the best-of-5 title playoffs starting Wednesday.

You’ll run out of clichés to describe the situation in the league’s biggest double treat this season. Do or die. Winner takes all. No tomorrows. You or me. Sudden-death knockout. Survival of the fittest. And to borrow the slogan in the just concluded National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs, win or go home.

It’s a situation that players live for and dream of — a fitting climax to the best-of-3 semifinals. Fans wouldn’t want it any other way. The pair of rubber matches will settle both battles once and for all.

In the first contest, Coca-Cola tries to make it five Finals in a row for the Tigers but Red Bull is riding the momentum of a blistering blowout last Friday. Then, crowd favorite Barangay Ginebra takes on surging Talk N’ Text in a shootout that promises to turn the Big Dome into a virtual O. K. Corral.

The winners of both encounters advance to the Last Dance. The losers will dispute third place in a consolation playoff.

The road to the Finals has been long and grueling.

Coca-Cola finished third in the eliminations, walloped Purefoods in the quarterfinal qualifiers, swept its quarterfinal assignments and opened the semifinals with a 91-87 win over Red Bull. Before last Friday’s loss, the Tigers had won five straight.

Coach Chot Reyes’ charges had a chance to close out Red Bull in Game 2 but were caught flat-footed by the ferocious Barakos who played with incredible intensity on both ends from start to finish. A 16-0 start set the tone for Red Bull’s relentless attack. Rudy Hatfield, Jeffrey Cariaso and Johnny Abarrientos sat out the entire fourth period as Reyes took a step back to rest his starters for today’s clincher.

Red Bull won four of its last five elimination outings, came from behind to eke out an 83-82 squeaker over Shell in a knockout quarterfinal qualifier, won two of three games in the quarterfinals and evened its semifinal series with Coca-Cola at a win apiece last Friday.

The Barakos are deadliest when their backs are against the wall and they proved it in a must-win Game 2 against the Tigers. Enrico Villanueva, nursing a sprained ankle, sat out the action. So did Denver Lopez — out for the conference with an arch injury that will take six weeks to heal — and Nelson Asaytono whose face was disfigured by a Mick Pennisi elbow during a skirmish at practice.

Despite a crippled lineup, Red Bull played like it was at full strength last Friday — that’s a tribute to coach Yeng Guiao’s style of keeping his players on their toes from game to game. Proof is all 13 locals in Guiao’s roster have started at least once this season.

Ginebra had a topsy-turvy showing in the eliminations. Allan Caidic was replaced by Siot Tanquincen after a 3-2 start and the Kings lost three in a row to end the eliminations. But rising to the occasion, Ginebra scuttled Sta. Lucia Realty, 108-105, in a do-or-die quarterfinal showdown then won two of three in the quarterfinals to qualify for the semifinals. The Kings got the jump on Talk n Text in Game 1 but lost in Game 2 last Friday.

In a stroke of fate, Ginebra point guard Bal David’s injury led to Jay-Jay Helterbrand’s emergence as a player of consequence. David has missed the last six games and Helterbrand, inhering the Flash’s minutes, has consistently scored in double figures in his absence.

The Phone Pals took a seven-game winning streak into the semifinals only to be stopped cold by Ginebra in Game 1. Coach Joel Banal’s nucleus is probably the league’s most solid five. Jerald Honeycutt, a legitimate NBA veteran, is a sleek inside-outside operator who’s big, strong and cunning. Asi Taulava is in a class of his own — no local comes close to be as dominating. Willie Miller, the PBA’s 1-on-1 king regardless of height, is playing like an MVP again and has scored at least 20 points in eight of his last nine appearances. Jimmy Alapag is making a strong bid as the PBA’s premier point guard. Victor Pablo, Mark Telan and Bong Ravena alternate to complete the cast.

If Red Bull plays like it did last Friday, the Tigers are in real danger of capitulating. Rebounding is key. The Barakos like to run the floor and to do that, they’ve got to control the boards. In Game 2, Red Bull outrebounded Coca-Cola, 65-52, and shot more fastbreak points, 22-12.

For the Tigers, it’s crucial that Abarrientos and Cariaso are in sharp form. Plus, Hatfield must make Victor Thomas bleed for his points. Backcourt poise and the H-Bomb’s defense are essential ingredients in the Tigers’ formula for success.

The Phone Pals went berserk from three-point distance in Game 2, knocking down 17-of-33 treys. The Kings gambled on allowing Talk ŒN’ Text to launch rainbows and paid dearly for it. Except for the disparity in three-point shooting, the stats were practically even in nearly all other departments.

If Mark Caguioa and Miller cancel each other out, it could boil down to a mano-a-mano duel between Honeycutt and Torraye Braggs. An explosive effort from Taulava, Eric Menk, Helterbrand, Alapag or any other player from either side could tilt the balance.

Defense will settle the issue in the first game while offense will decide the survivor in the second.