First blood a jinx?

There’s an emerging trend in the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) and it’s making fans wonder if it’s a jinx or an accident. In the last five PBA Finals, the Game 1 winner went on to lose the series. Drawing first blood apparently doesn’t pay off. Maybe, the first cut isn’t the deepest after all.

Five in a row may no longer be just a coincidence. Is coming from behind the fashionable thing to do because it makes victory so much sweeter?

It all began when Purefoods lost Game 1 to Alaska in the First Conference last year. The Tender Juicy Hot Dogs rebounded from a 79-73 loss in the best-of-7 series opener to win four of the last five games.

"I think it’s just an accident," said Purefoods coach Ryan Gregorio. "It’s always nice to have a head start in a race but Game 1 winners tend to be complacent."

In the Second Conference Finals last season, it was the same beginning of the end for Talk ‘N’ Text as the Phone Pals beat Red Bull, 102-100, in Game 1 only to bow out in six. The Thunder came roaring back from a 2-3 series deficit to sweep the last two outings.

Red Bull coach Yeng Guiao said losing Game 1 had nothing to do with clinching the crown. "I don’t believe in jinx," noted Guiao. "Just coincidence. Law of averages will (eventually) catch up."

Then came the Third Conference Finals. Coca-Cola went up against Alaska in a best-of-5 duel. The Tigers lost a 70-67 decision in Game 1 and it looked like the Aces would breeze with both Johnny Abarrientos and Jeffrey Cariaso out of commission the rest of the series. But in a remarkable recovery, the handicapped Tigers won two straight in overtime then clinched the crown via a 78-63 decision in Game 4.

Nobody would’ve imagined Coca-Cola rising from the grave to beat Alaska three in a row–except the Tiger diehards who found faith in the Game 1 jinx.

In the All-Filipino Cup Finals last July, the trend was preserved. Talk ‘N’ Text didn’t only drop Game 1 but also Game 2 then regrouped–with God on the Phone Pals’ side, according to coach Joel Banal–to sweep the next four contests. What made Banal’s feat more incredible was the lopsided margin in Game 1, which Coca-Cola handily took, 93-79.

Phone Pals interim head coach Ariel Vanguardia said it could be a jinx.

"We knew it when we lost to Coca-Cola in Game 1," remarked Vanguardia. "I told Joel after that when we were in the Finals last year versus Red Bull, we won Game 1 but lost the series. But I’m sure it (the trend) will soon be broken as coaches are really good with adjustments."

In the recent Invitational Championship Finals, it was more of the same. Coca-Cola won Game 1, 94-81, and lost the next two in the best-of-3 series. Alaska’s window of opportunity came in Game 2 which the Aces barely took, 78-76, in overtime. In the decider, Alaska made sure of the outcome and coasted to a 91-86 triumph.

"I really believe winning Game 1 gives a false sense of security," said Alaska coach Tim Cone who just wrapped up his 11th career victory. "It makes you think championship too early."

Ordinarily, Alaska would’ve lost both Games 2 and 3 because of the Aces’ high turnover rate. In Game 2, the Aces were slapped 30 turnovers and in Game 3, 31. Still, Alaska hung on to win despite the spate of miscues, getting the job done off the boards and forcing the Tigers to shoot in the 30 percent range. Or could it have been the Game 1 jinx that did Coca-Cola in?

Alaska team manager Joaqui Trillo said: "I think Game 1 winners tend to become overconfident and realize this too late. Coca-Cola thought with an injured (Don) Allado, it would be a breeze, a walk in the park."

Trillo referred to Allado’s absence–which the Tigers exploited–in Game 1 due to a right ankle sprain. Allado, however, sprang back to life in Game 2, delivering 14 points and 11 rebounds in 48 minutes. And in Game 3, Allado contributed 12 points, eight rebounds and four assists in 38 minutes.

Does it mean that in future Finals, a team would rather lose Game 1 to improve its chances of claiming the trophy? Will it be a case of losing the battle to win the war?

PBA Commissioner Noli Eala, of course, will hear none of that. Playing to lose is absolutely forbidden, no matter the strategic wisdom of that Chinese adage of taking one step backward to move two steps forward.

Tigers coach Chot Reyes said, "I can’t imagine any team intentionally losing Game 1, especially in a best-of-3 or 5 series."

So is the trend an accident or a jinx? "Coincidence," replied Reyes. "I don’t believe in jinxes."

Sta. Lucia Realty coach Alfrancis Chua said it’s purely an accident. "Cos after d 1st game, nag-rerelax," he texted. Incidentally, Chua was on the bench of the last PBA team that won a Game 1 in the Finals and went on to bag the title. Sta. Lucia defeated San Miguel Beer, 86-80, in the series opener then held on to clinch the 2001 Governors Cup crown in six. Chua was then coach Norman Black’s consultant.

FedEx coach Derick Pumaren agreed. "I don’t think it’s a jinx," he explained. "Maybe, more of a coincidence. I think teams taking Game 1 tend to relax and be out of focus because they’re in the driver’s seat. Teams that lose Game 1 have time to regroup and refocus, probably making them hungrier for the win."

As for San Miguel Beer coach Joseph Uichico, he, too, said the trend is only an accident. "I will always want to win Game 1 in a series," he declared.

In the National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals, only three Game 1 losers went on to win the title the last 13 years. That’s far from being a trend.

Chicago lost a 93-91 decision to the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the 1991 NBA Finals then won four straight to pocket Michael Jordan’s first championship. In 1998, Utah took Game 1, 88-85, in overtime but the Bulls recovered to capture the crown in six. And two years ago, Allen Iverson and the Philadelphia 76ers upset the Lakers, 107-101, in the Finals opener then didn’t win another game as coach Phil Jackson relived his 1991 Bulls odyssey in a sort of deja vu.

Trend or not, no coach in his right mind will give away the chance to win Game 1 in a series. That’s the final verdict.