D-Day cometh

Last Tuesday, I predicted that one series would end and the other wouldn’t in the semifinals of the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Samsung Governors Cup. As it turned out, I was only half-right or half-wrong, depending on how you look at things. Both series extended to a deciding Game 5, proving that in basketball, odds don't mean much when push comes to shove.

I expected Alaska to take San Miguel Beer to the limit. The Aces were due for an explosion after shooting a miserable 36.7 percent from the field in the first three games. Besides, Lamont Strothers is playing below par, obviously hurting from a well-concealed injury. So when Alaska beat the Beermen, I wasn't surprised.

Coach Tim Cone capitalized on San Miguel's 17 turnovers, eight from Strothers, to turn the tide. Then, with the outcome on the line, the Aces found the range from outside--a key to neutralizing San Miguel’s suffocating interior defense. In the end, Alaska wound up shooting 43 percent from the field, knocking down 10 threes, and scoring 74 points.

Those were all highs for the Aces in the series. Alaska hadn’t hit over 40 percent, hadn't knocked down more than six treys, and hadn't scored beyond 67 points in the three previous games.

San Miguel’s success is anchored on forcing Alaska to play a halfcourt game as the Beermen are toughest defensively in that situation. That's why the Aces can’t consistently execute off the triangle. The antidote is to step up the pace but that's easier said than done because San Miguel has dominated the boards from Game 1. To fuel transition, Alaska must control the rebounds. An up-and-down attack will make it difficult for San Miguel to establish its halfcourt defense.

In Games 1 and 3 which San Miguel won, the Beermen overcame a truckload of turnovers by controlling the rebounds and limiting the Aces to less than 40 percent shooting. It didn't matter that Alaska took an average of 10 more field goal attempts than San Miguel because the Aces couldn't shoot over 40 percent anyway.

In Game 4, luck wasn't on coach Siot Tanquingcen’s side. Boybits Victoria picked up three early fouls and played only three minutes in the first half. He never got going the rest of the way. Once more, the Beermen shot poorly from the line--9-of-16 for 56 percent. In Game 2, they missed 10 free throws. In Game 3, they also missed 10. If San Miguel converted five of those 10 missed charities in Game 2, the series would've been over in Game 3. Remember that Alaska beat San Miguel by four in Game 2.

Alaska’s Double-A tandem was red hot in Game 4. Don (King) Allado shot 7-of-10 from the field and John Arigo, 6-of-8, to fuel the Aces' late surge that wiped out San Miguel's hopes for a comeback.

To survive D-Day, San Miguel must check its turnovers, stay home on defense in the perimeter, control the boards, avoid foul trouble, play it slow, convert free throws, and erase Alaska's inside offense.

For Alaska, the imperatives are to pressure San Miguel into errors, quicken the pace, hit the outside shot, attack Strothers' defense, challenge Mario Bennett and Dorian Peña inside to get them into foul trouble, and let Ron Riley take over the game.

The other series is just as exciting. Coca-Cola becomes the first PBA team ever to come back from a 0-2 deficit to win a best-of-5 semifinal duel if the Tigers beat Purefoods in their D-Day showdown tonight.

The Tender Juicy Hot Dogs looked ready to barge into the finals after waylaying Coca-Cola, 89-86, in Game 1 and 84-75 in Game 2. Derrick Brown, who's been invited to attend the Toronto camp by Raptors head scout Jim Kelly after the conference, was unstoppable in the opener. He scored 33 points, 13 in the fourth period.

But coach Chot Reyes was far from finished. With Johnny Abarrientos back in harness, the Tigers rebounded to take Game 3, 77-72, and Game 4, 64-59.

The momentum shift was decisive. Reyes figured the Tigers wouldn't beat Purefoods at its game which is offense-oriented so he focused on defense to turn the tables on coach Ryan Gregorio. In the last two games, Purefoods was held to an average of only 65.5 points after an 86.5 clip in the first two. Brown's partner Kelvin Price was shackled in Game 4, shooting 1-of-10 from the field, as the Tigers clawed their way back to life.

To be honest, I thought Purefoods would end it in Game 4. The Hot Dogs hadn’t lost back-to-back games the entire conference. But Reyes wouldn’t be denied his chance to make history.

As usual, Reyes has been unpredictable in the series. That’s how he wants it. Reyes likes to keep the opposition guessing. In Game 3, he started Cris Bolado who didn’t play at all in Game 2. In Game 4, he started Lowell Briones--filling in for Will Antonio--and Rafi Reavis to confuse the enemy.

Then, down the stretch, he called on Estong Ballesteros for the bail-out shots. Ballesteros delivered 11 points, all in the final period, to seal the outcome.

Like San Miguel in the Alaska series, Purefoods has piled up more turnovers and more rebounds than Coca-Cola. Reyes would probably like to think that the Hot Dogs' high rate of turnovers is a given because of the Tigers' unrelenting defense. So if Coca-Cola takes care of the rebounds and limits Purefoods to less than 40 percent shooting, Reyes' chances look good. In Game 4, Reyes adjusted his defensive concentration by clamping down on Brown's teammates rather than on Flight alone. The result? Only Brown scored in twin digits and Purefoods lost by five.

For Purefoods to advance, the Hot Dogs must take better care of the ball, generate more offense from the locals, set up scoring situations for Price, neutralize Rosell Ellis' inside game, trigger breakouts for Brown in the open court, and control the boards.

For Coca-Cola to make it, the Tigers must muzzle Brown, force Price out of his comfort zone on the low block, hound the Hot Dogs' ballcarriers--particularly as Ronnie Magsanoc seems to be hurting, exploit mismatches on offense, and play it smart.

The action couldn't be fiercer on D-Day.