Nobody’s safe

In the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Samsung Governors Cup quarterfinals starting today, the top four seeds carry a twice-to-beat advantage but that’s no safe cushion against an ambush.

Talk ‘N Text, Coca-Cola, Purefoods, and Alaska need to win only once to barge into the semis. But the bottom four seeds – FedEx, Red Bull, Sta. Lucia Realty, and San Miguel Beer – must win twice to make it.

PBA statistics guru Fidel Mangonon notes that since the 1996 Governors Cup, only four teams without a twice-to-beat advantage overcame the odds to enter the semifinals. In fact, only 15 of 42 quarterfinal pairings were extended to a winner-take-all second game, adds Fidel. So an upset is only remotely possible. It’s a slim 10 percent chance for a team without a twice-to-beat advantage to survive the quarterfinals.

For the record, the four unlikely qualifiers in PBA history were Shell (over Purefoods in the 1998 Commissioner’s Cup), Ginebra San Miguel (over Mobiline in the 1999 All-Filipino Cup), San Miguel Beer (over Tanduay in the 2000 Governors Cup), and Ginebra San Miguel again (over Purefoods in the 2001 All-Filipino Cup).

The most memorable upset was fashioned by No. 8 Ginebra over No. 1 Mobiline in 1999. Asi Taulava was in near shock after the highly-fancied Phone Pals lost two straight to the underdog Kings. San Miguel also carved out a historic upset in the 2000 Governors Cup as it went all the way to bag the championship. San Miguel’s the only club without a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters to eventually win the title. Last year, Ginebra became the second team without the advantage to reach the finals.

In today’s first quarterfinal pairing, No. 1 Talk ‘N Text battles No. 8 San Miguel. On Thursday, it’s No. 4 Alaska versus No. 5 FedEx. Saturday’s doubleheader features No. 3 Purefoods versus No. 6 Red Bull and No. 2 Coca-Cola versus No. 7 Sta. Lucia Realty. All the games are potential clinchers.

The semis will be a best-of-5 affair involving the Talk ‘N Text-San Miguel winner versus the Alaska-FedEx winner and the Purefoods-Red Bull winner versus the Coca-Cola-Sta. Lucia winner. The survivors then duel in the best-of-7 finals.

The Beermen will be hard pressed to beat the Pals and they’ve got to do it twice. In the elims, Talk ‘N Text barely beat San Miguel, 82-81, last Feb. 28 but that was only the Pal’s third outing with Bill Bayno on the bench. San Miguel has lost two of its last three games and is crippled by the absence of national players Danny Seigle, Danny Ildefonso, and Olsen Racela. Dondon Hontiveros, acquired from Tanduay in the offseason, would’ve helped but he, too, is on coach Joseph Uichico’s lineup for Busan.

With a depleted cast, interim coach Siot Tanquingcen is hoping imports Lamont Strothers and Mario Bennett work extra hard against the Pals. Is that asking too much? Strothers says he’s on his last tour of duty but the betting is if he brings San Miguel to the semis, it isn’t a closed book yet. He’s a proud player with a lot of heart and he knows what it takes to win in the PBA. Strothers and Bennett are sure to give it their all. The problem is they can’t do it by themselves. Nick Belasco, Boybits Victoria, Dorian Pena, Dwight Lago, and Joey Mente must do their share.

The key to scrambling Talk ‘N Text is to stop the Pals from running. Bottling up Jerald Honeycutt is another key – he’s an excellent passer so it’s not enough that he’s prevented from scoring. Then, a third key is taking away Richie Frahm’s good looks. In short, it’s a tall order for San Miguel.

FedEx must beat Alaska twice to advance. The Express is deadliest in a high-scoring shootout. Jermaine Walker, Tim Moore and Bong Alvarez are unstoppable in the open court. So for Alaska to stymie FedEx, the Aces’ defense must hold up. That means sprinting back to stop fastbreak layups, clogging the lane to prevent slashes, and forcing the Express to score from the perimeter. How James Head matches up – Head-to-head (pardon the pun) – against Moore is critical because Ron Riley should be able to neutralize Walker. FedEx crushed Alaska, 83-69, in the elims but that was when Moore outscored Head’s predecessor Muntrelle Dobbins, 28-8.

Kerby Raymundo faces his former club in an interesting sidelight to the Purefoods-Red Bull clash. The Thunder must win twice to survive and coach Yeng Guiao’s hoping Tony Lang will get the job done. Remember that Lang led Red Bull over Purefoods in the Second Conference semis last year. Red Bull’s local lineup is deeper than the Hot Dogs’ – younger and more athletic, too. Trying to contain Lang will be interim coach Ryan Gregorio’s major headache.

For Guiao, the question is: Will Joe Bunn stay or leave? Derrick Brown is Purefoods’ basic weapon ground the Flight and it’s over. Leon White has been hampered by injuries the last two games and if he doesn’t play up to par, Red Bull could win twice in a row easily.

Sta. Lucia assistant coach Alfrancis Chua is optimistic of the Realtors’ chances against the Tigers. But what if Mark Davis decides to take it easy and let Victor Thomas do all the work? Davis has the tools – if only he has the desire. Coca-Cola’s Rosell Ellis and Ron Hale are battle-tested. They’re blue-collar workers who won’t back down from any challenge. Tigers coach Chot Reyes had the added luxury of including Rafi Reavis, released from the national pool, in his lineup.

Realtors coach Norman Black’s consolation is the never-say-die attitude of his overachieving locals – Paolo Mendoza, Chris Tan, Gerard Francisco, Francis Adriano, Noynoy Falcasantos, and the suddenly outstanding Marvin Ortiguerra.

From the looks of things, at least two of the four quarterfinal pairings will go to a do-or-die second game.