Second-guessing Paras’ call for Sara to stand by

There was a rally organized and led by the religious sect known to us as the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) on June 30. It wasn’t really massive because the crowd count initially done in the afternoon that day recorded 13,000 although it peaked at approximately 15,500 people, according to the Quezon City Police District. If only to make a graphic comparison, the highest crowd estimate on the last day of the INC November 25, 2025 protest was recorded at 600,000. So, mathematically speaking, the June 30 crowd was only 2.5% of the November 25, 2025 rallyists. Describing the crowd as massive was both unreal and illusionary.

This comparatively small number of people joining the June 30 INC rally could probably be explained by the fact that the day before the rally the announcements made by some INC members created the impression that it was a rather hastily-organized mass action. I would even wonder how small the crowd would have been if the organizers had not “imported” (my word) warm bodies from the provinces. A very close family friend of ours said her brother, a barangay captain of a remote village in Bohol and few fellow villagers were bussed all the way from Bohol to Manila, provided accommodation and given allowance just to attend the rally. The unsuspecting captain would swear that he thought it was legit government effort.

Mainstream and social media reported that the rally speakers broadly called for "transparency, accountability, justice, and peace" in government while the mass action was observably organized in support of embattled Senator Rodante Marcoleta. To remember, the ombudsman earlier announced that it would file plunder charges against Marcoleta over alleged undeclared campaign contributions and such case filing would pave a way for the issuance of warrants for his arrest.

Two high-profile personalities entered the scene. The first was Atty. Jacinto “Jing” Villegas Paras, former member of the House of Representatives, 1st District of Negros Oriental, and adviser on political affairs of former president Rodrigo Duterte. The second was political commentator Jeffrey "Ka Eric" Celiz, a Philippine vlogger, former broadcaster for the Sonshine Media Network International, a vocal government critic who frequently identifies himself as a former high-ranking member of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army who surrendered to the military. Both of them publicly urged Vice President Sara Duterte to stay "on standby" and be ready to assume the presidency. Paras, reportedly expressed himself in clear language directly appearing to Duterte to remain on standby and be prepared to take over the highest office.

It was at this point that I had to second-guess the purpose of the INC June 30 rally. By the way the term “second-guess” which, according to the internet, means “to doubt or question a decision you or someone else has made, or to try to anticipate what will happen before it occurs” originated in the 1930s as American baseball slang to describe people who loudly criticized or questioned a player's or manager's split-second decision after the play happened, possessing the luxury of hindsight. The meaning expanded from sports criticism to everyday decision making, where it now frequently means doubting your own choices or predicting what someone else will do.

On my second-guess, the entry of Paras and Celiz, changed the color of the June 30 INC rally. The mass action was not conducted in order to support Senator Marcoleta. It was designed to destabilize the government. The rally organizers expected the crowd to surge in incredible number not unlike the volume of people who descended at EDSA 1, and they would demand the president to repeat what Da Apo and Erap did in 1986 and 2001, respectively. If I am wrong, then I do not understand second-guess.