Trust is the new oil

Most people do not wake up thinking about the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+, Iran, petrodollars or tanker insurance. They wake up thinking about the commute, the school run, the delivery fee, the LPG tank at home, the jeepney fare, the fish at the wet market and whether next week’s income can still outrun next week’s prices. That is why the oil story must be explained simply. What is happening now is not just an oil crisis. It is a distance crisis. When war or fear makes energy harder to move, countries like the Philippines do not just pay more for fuel. We pay more for being far away from where energy is produced.

That is the first important insight. The world is not running out of oil. The world is running short of trusted routes. In 2024, about 20 million barrels a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz, around 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption. The IEA says roughly 80 percent of that flow is destined for Asia. So when the US, Israel and Iran raise the temperature in the Middle East, the immediate economic pain is felt most sharply not in America but in Asia, where importers like the Philippines live at the far end of the pipe.

That is why the current spike in oil prices is deceptive. Yes, prices matter. But the bigger issue is that this is really a shipping, insurance and confidence shock wearing an oil costume. Reuters reported that the US-Israel war with Iran continues to disrupt supply, while OPEC+’s planned increase is modest relative to the scale of the risk. Even if producers say they can pump more, that does not automatically solve the problem if ships cannot move freely, insurers hesitate and buyers fear new attacks tomorrow.

My own read is that this probably does not become a forever-war with total regional collapse, but it also probably does not end neatly and quickly. The most likely outcome is an ugly middle. A few weeks of severe nerves. A few more weeks of partial reopening, exceptions and backchannel diplomacy. Then months of lingering price risk even if headlines calm down. In plain language: the first panic may be short, but the aftertaste may last much longer. Oil markets can cool faster than political distrust does.

There is also a counterintuitive point here. Many people talk about the decline of the petrodollar and the rise of new alignments with China, Russia and alternative payment systems. That long-term trend may be real. But in a crisis, the dollar often becomes more powerful, not less. Why? Because in an emergency, countries do not just need a currency. They need a whole protection system around trade: financing, insurance, naval protection, sanctions waivers and reserve liquidity. So even in a world that talks about de-dollarization, a war can temporarily strengthen the very system people say is fading. China may gain diplomatic relevance, but the infrastructure of crisis management is still heavily dollar-centered.

For the Philippines, this is where the story gets more practical. President Marcos has already announced measures to cushion the impact of rising oil prices, including fuel subsidies, energy-saving directives and efforts to keep supplies stable. The Department of Energy under Secretary Sharon Garin launched a strategic fuel program targeting up to two million barrels of additional supply, adopted interim fuel measures and warned against profiteering and hoarding. The government also declared a state of national energy emergency and sought US waivers so the Philippines could access oil from sanctioned countries if needed.

Who gets hit first? The common Filipino, immediately. The commuter pays more. The delivery rider pays more. The fisherman, the farmer, the tricycle driver, the market vendor, the small restaurant owner, all feel it quickly because fuel quietly sits inside almost every price tag. The affluent are affected too, but later and more softly: airfare, imported goods, construction inputs, logistics costs and investment sentiment. Gas players are not automatically winners either. Big firms may benefit from scale, but smaller stations can get squeezed by working capital needs, sudden replacement costs and weaker demand when consumers cut back.

The political effect in the Philippines will depend less on whether government can magically make oil cheap and more on whether it can keep daily life from becoming disorderly. That is the real test. People can endure hardship longer than elites assume, but they lose patience when they sense confusion, unfairness or delay. A competent government response today is not one that promises impossible global control. It is one that proves it can secure supply, target help, prevent abuse and communicate clearly.

And here is the unique perspective I would offer: the future will not be decided only by which nations have oil, but by which nations have options. In the coming years, national strength may be measured less by raw resources and more by the ability to keep people moving when the map breaks. That means diversified energy sources, better storage, smarter logistics, more local power, less waste and diplomacy broad enough to speak to allies, Arabs, China and the West without losing our own interests. The true shortage is not only fuel. It is room to maneuver. And that may be the most important lesson of this crisis for the Philippines.