Food and water – the next crisis

Just when I was thinking about it, DENR Acting Secretary Mitch Cuna came out with a warning that the Philippines could face “water bankruptcy” in the near future.

I congratulate “Sec” Mitch Cuna for being brave enough to put out the warning, even as the government is trying to reassure Filipinos not to panic buy, hoard or worry about fuel and food.

We can all walk, use scrap materials and firewood to cook, learn to live like our great grandparents used to, but I haven’t heard of the resurrection of Moses who could call out or whack water from a stone.

I have on numerous occasions been faced with the prospects of seeing the well go dry or typhoons destroying powerlines and shutting down pumping stations.

What always saved us was having cisterns, multiple tanks, even a swimming pool that served as a reservoir when a typhoon hit Metro Manila that rendered us without water for two or three weeks.

Cisterns have long been part of the water engineering in the country, much like our experience was in Barrio Kapitolyo where we stocked water in a ground cistern before Manila Water improved the system.   

While living in far-flung Busuanga, Palawan, one of the challenges we faced was having to collect water from a spring into 55-gallon drums placed on wide body bancas. It was slow, expensive and difficult. To solve the problem, we built a concrete tank that would fill overnight and supply everyone.

But do we have enough reservoirs, dams and local water impounding areas to draw water from in Metro Manila and the Philippines? If we don’t, then that should be our priority above all else, because water bankruptcy equals death!

I don’t want to be dramatic, but anyone challenging the statement is welcome to try to go without water for three to five days.

If dehydration does not kill you, your body odor just might! Stop building roads that self-destruct and spend the money on dams, reservoirs and reforestation.

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My friend Rod Bioco, the former NFA administrator, sent a very interesting analysis on the probability of a food crisis due to a fertilizer shortage caused by the current fuel crisis.

“Food crisis will rear its ugly head 6-9 months after fertilizer supply crisis started at the onset of Iran war. 
“Situation has worsened. Israel bombed biggest gas fields of the world in Iran. In retaliation, Iran bombed world’s biggest gas facilities in Qatar. Damages are extensive both sides. It will take at least five years to rebuild, which will not take place until war ends.
“If Iran war gets protracted, food crisis follows, with much more devastating effect than oil crisis. More than 33 percent of fertilizer comes from the Gulf area, mainly urea, but also affecting other grades that use ammonia as the nitrogen component to produce (16-20-0, 18-46-0, 14-14-14 and 21-0-0).

“The Gulf states also supply 33 percent of the sulfur needed in fertilizer. Natural gas is used to produce urea/ammonia. China and India initially got safe passage from Iran, allowing their vessels through Strait of Hormuz.

“But with natural gas facilities damaged in the Gulf area, that part of their food security equation is disrupted. India alone needs to secure 17 percent of its nitrogen needs elsewhere outside the Gulf, pressuring further fertilizer prices and availability.

“Philippines also sources much of its urea needs from the Gulf. It has to secure now from other sources and make sure they arrive now in time for our May-June wet season planting, otherwise staple food supply will be upended by Aug-Nov harvest season.

“In first half 2022, when Ukraine War started, Philippines was not able to secure 35 percent of its fertilizer due to high prices and lower demand from farmers, who could not afford the price shock 2-3 times pre-invasion prices.

“This time is going to be worse. It is not just a price issue, but more seriously, physical availability issue. In terms of prices before the start of Iran war, urea prices were already double pre-Ukraine war.

“So, we are starting from an elevated base already and if fertilizer prices double, our farmers cannot afford them. Furthermore, there is a serious concern that Vietnam and Thailand will curb its rice exports by half.

“Each of them export rice around 7-8-million MT/year, around 25-33 percent excess of their domestic needs. Both only have six-month of government buffer stocks.

“(The Philippines has only 12 days stock and many of which are two-year-old palay that may not be safe for human consumption because these could already be with high level of aflatoxin.)

“So as soon as their fertilizer needs for the wet season planting in May-June are not met, Vietnam and Thailand will cut down their rice export.
“India, which still enjoys huge rice surplus, may still decide to curtail rice exports to manage food inflation. It has allocated also 5.2-million MT of rice before the war, and may decide to ramp up volume not just to meet its 20 percent ethanol blend mandate, but due to petroleum supply concerns.”

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However it turns out, Filipinos really need to cut back on our rice consumption and increase and plant or produce alternatives to rice.

As my Lolo said, “Plant kamote, kamote!”

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