Cautiously confident

Amid the oil crisis, the ones most affected are those running businesses. As I’ve said in my past three columns, the rising fuel prices ripple through supply chains antransportation. For a deeper understanding of it, I had to turn to one of the biggest chambers of commerce and industry in the country --ours, in Cebu. When uncertainty looms, the instinct is to listen to the people who keep the engines of the local economy running.

It was an odd feeling, seemingly singled out at that encounter with the new set of officials for this chamber. Both parties only wanted the same message out; I bet this isn’t the time to gatekeep this intention. The question we all had was simple but heavy: how should businesses move now as oil prices continue to soar? Twice they answered; it comes with being calm that only comes from experience to say that they are in a state of being cautiously confident.

It is not like they haven't gone through a crisis in the past. In fact, its president, Regan King, mentioned what happened in the ‘90’s when Cebu’s business landscape had to cut down to its core but managed to bounce back eventually. Companies closed, some downsized, and others simply learned how to survive on leaner operations. Cebu, after all, has always had a way of reinventing itself.

I wasn’t there when that happened, but my most vivid memory of businesses shutting down was during the pandemic. It was a big adjustment having to operate with distance and doing most of the work from home. The thought was something novel at the time, but one that we managed to adapt to in the long run. Looking back, what felt impossible then eventually became routine: online meetings replaced conference rooms, delivery services replaced in-person dining. At that point, businesses learned to trim costs, rethink strategies, and find new ways to reach customers.

This time, they said that they are going to do the same. Very precisely, the move is to do it one step at a time. I couldn’t agree more with the chamber officials. I have also seen the prices of gasoline shoot up to close to a hundred pesos per liter during the Ukraine-Russian War. At that time, the best recourse was to bank on subsidies from the government until prices slowly returned to a more manageable level. It was far from ideal, but it bought businesses enough time to breathe.

Crises, after all, tend to arrive in waves. Just when stability seems within reach, another disruption appears on the horizon. Yet the business sector has learned that survival often depends not on eliminating uncertainty, but on managing it. One piece of wisdom stayed with me even after we parted ways: never panic. Decision-makers who operate on panic make the worst decisions, those that could lead to regret later on. In times like these, perhaps the most valuable commodity is not oil, but composure. It might just be the most practical mindset there is.