BenHur and the Senate polls

Former Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) secretary BenHur Abalos has clawed back to the win column.

Previously, President Marcos Jr.’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition ticket somehow lost momentum following the March 11, 2025 arrest and deportation to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands of former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD).

At the Tuesday Club breakfast at EDSA Shangri-La on May 6, BenHur topped the senatorial mock election, in this order: 1. BenHur Abalos, 2. Bam Aquino, 3. Ping Lacson, 4. Tito Sotto, 5. Abby Binay, 6. Kiko Pangilinan, 7. Pia Cayetano, 8. Tol Tolentino, 9. Camille Villar, 10. Bong Go, 11. Imee Marcos and 12. Erwin Tulfo. The Tuesday Club groups senior journalists, corporate, PR and advertising executives; Cabinet members and a number of public officials.

Digong’s March 11, 2025 unceremonial planeside arrest triggered a wave of sympathy votes for his senatorial ticket, especially in his home region of Mindanao island, skewing the possible vote tallies for the 12 likely senatorial winners.

Between OCTA’s January 2025 survey and its latest April 20-24, 2025 poll, reelectionist senator and long-time RRD right-hand man Bong Go raced to dominate the No. 1 slot, with 56.8 percent of respondents likely to vote for him, equivalent to 25.56 million votes, assuming 45 million (out of 69 million registered voters) will vote for senators.

Go’s 56.8 percent is actually a 1.2 percentage point decline from his 58 percent ratio in January 2025.

But the drop in popularity of certain Alyansa (and ex-Alyansa like Imee Marcos) was so massive Bong Go exceeded the three percent survey margin of error to take the solo lead. He dislodged erstwhile No. 1, Alyansa’s Erwin Tulfo, who managed just a 52.7 percent vote share in the April 20-25 OCTA survey. Go is ahead of Erwin by  4.1 percentage points, equivalent to 1.845 million votes.

On balance, Alyansa will likely win up to 10 of the 12 senatorial seats, giving President BBM an overwhelming mandate with the impeachment of VP Sara Duterte in the mind of senators.

In January 2025, Erwin Tulfo had a commanding 70 percent share of the senatorial votes, equivalent to 31.5 million. The broadcaster lost 17.3 percentage points or 7.78 million votes despite three months of campaigning.

The biggest vote erosion pummeled Erwin’s brother, Ben “Bitag” Tulfo, from 60 percent in January 2025 (No. 2 to Erwin) to 40.2 percent by April 20-24, 2025, down 19.8 percentage points or 8.91 million votes, and down from No. 2 to No. 5 in rankings.

A shocking loss in votes has overwhelmed presidential sister and re-electionist Senator Imee Marcos, from 44 percent or No. 6 (she is a Marcos, after all) in the senatorial race in January 2025 to 28.9 percent (No. 15) in late April, an erosion of 15.1 percentage points or 6.795 million votes. In politics, it seems, voters hate it when you paddle on two bancas. Sino ba talaga, ate?

Meanwhile, a wave of endorsements has boosted tremendously the chances of BenHur Abalos becoming a senator.

Abalos endorsers include the powerful Union of Local Authorities of the Philippines, the association of all LGUs; the Philippine Councilors League, the influential former vice president Leni Robredo, a large number of governors of vote-rich provinces, big cities and majority of the towns.

OCTA thinks BenHur could even place No.10 in the race. BenHur is only 1.3 million votes behind the current No. 12, the affable and brilliant Bam Aquino, who has a 31.4 percent, equivalent to 14.13 million possible votes. BenHur has 28.5 percent or 12.825 million possible votes.

The difference between 31.4 and 28.5 is 2.9 percentage points – within the three percent margin of error, meaning OCTA could be wrong on Bam’s being No. 12 and BenHur’s being No. 16 and the two could exchange places and make BenHur the winner.

In past senatorial polls, a candidate could wipe out a rival’s margin of two million votes, depending on last minute strategies and tactical moves. BenHur is the personal choice of President BBM for senator. BBM won’t let his protégé down in the homestretch of the frenetic campaign.

As BBM’s DILG chief, BenHur Abalos was Mr. Law and Order and Mr. Rule of Law.

BenHur executed two of the most amazing arrests of high-profile fugitives ever by a sitting government, lending gravitas to his executive and enforcement capabilities.

The first is Alice Guo, a billionaire and suspected to be behind a POGO-centered criminal syndicate and a master spy embedded into the innards of the local government of China. The second is pastor Apollo Quiboloy, head of a cult with a claimed following of seven million and who is wanted by the US Federal government for alleged crimes related to sex abuse, human trafficking, illegal drugs and money laundering.

After the stunning arrests of Guo and Quiboloy, BenHur declared: “No man is above the law!”

BenHur served as chair of the Metro Manila Development Authority under president Duterte, from 2021 to 2022. He was a five-term mayor (2007-2016) of Mandaluyong, which he built into what he called a Tiger City geared for businesses of the 21st century and in the age of the internet of things.

At DILG, BenHur sought to promote peace and order, unite LGUs – 80 provinces, 100 cities,1,500 towns behind Ang Bagong Pilipinas, pursued an illegal drugs campaign with a human touch (no killings) and clean and reform the 175,000-strong Philippine National Police, described by a PNP official as the biggest criminal syndicate.

At a time of rising and rampant corruption in many LGUs and a continuing lack of discipline of police forces, BenHur’s vast legislative and executive experience will come in handy when the next Senate crafts legislation on local government, illegal drugs, police discipline and peace and order at large.

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