What’s happening to Alyansa?

That was a welcome pause – Maundy Thursday and Good Friday – from the dizzying political circus, which has become as scorching as the sweltering summer heat.

But today, Easter Sunday, marks not just new beginnings but the candidates’ return to the campaign trail.

The election season is now on its final leg with only 20 days left until May 12, 2025.

Where are we so far?

Before the Holy Week break, I was struck by stories surrounding President Marcos’ Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas.

The STAR’s April 15 banner story “Marcos’ Alyansa remains intact,” quoting campaign manager Toby Tiangco, says a lot.

The story quoted Tiangco as saying that the five-party Alyansa – composed of Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, Lakas-CMD, Nationalist People’s Coalition, National Unity Party and Nacionalista Party – remains complete.

He sounded a little too defensive, which might mean that Alyansa is indeed in a precarious situation.

Tiangco’s statement came as photos of Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar with Vice President Sara Duterte circulated on social media. Before this, Sen. Imee Marcos announced – not without fanfare – her departure from her brother’s coalition. Her candidacy has now been formally endorsed by VP Sara.

On the other hand, surveys show that Duterte allies are surging in the Senate race.

According to the latest Pulse Asia results last week, Sen. Bong Go, who is seeking reelection, has solidified his lead with 61.9 percent voter support.

Another Duterte ally, Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, also remained strong with 48.7 percent, higher than former Senate president Vicente Sotto III with 44.2 percent. (The STAR, April 12, 2025).

Clearly, the May 2025 senatorial race has turned into an all-out proxy war between the two warring political dynasties – Marcoses and Dutertes.

But at the rate things are going, it seems that administration-backed Alyansa is turning out to be a rudderless ship instead of a political juggernaut.

This is despite the endorsement of Marcos himself, the machinery of the administration and the financial muscle.

Against a boring and seemingly uninspired Alyansa campaign, Duterte’s PDP-Laban appears energized and emotional. It is especially in full force with its army of trolls on social media – as if a sleeping giant has awakened.

They have become even more ferocious and visible now, with photos and videos of their campaigns filling our timelines almost every day.

The recent survey results seem to be a referendum on Marcos’ crumbling political strategy.

Tiangco, however, insists that Alyansa remains unshaken and united, as its senatorial slate continues to gain broad and growing support nationwide.

Whispers in political circles, however, say otherwise.

Some of their candidates are getting frustrated over the lack of support from the central team, leaving them no choice but to mount their own strategy.

Just before the Holy Week break, I had a chat with a tycoon who is privy to Alyansa’s campaign and he said that the coalition, indeed, has made some wrong calls and now needs to take evasive action.

It’s no surprise that some observers are now doubting if Tiangco has enough political muscle to win a national race.

It doesn’t help that Alyansa was even rumored to be considering a strategic alignment with Liberal Party stalwart Bam Aquino, although Tiangco denied this.

Still, this set off alarms within the camps of the Marcoses, the Yellows and the Pinks. Aquino, after all, was the campaign manager of Leni Robredo during the 2022 elections.

Of course, Alyansa isn’t just Tiangco. It doesn’t help that some of its candidates aren’t exactly popular and have been tagged as trapos.

Given the issues surrounding Alyansa, it’s interesting to see what will happen in May.

What’s at stake?

What’s certain for now is that there’s a lot at stake. The Marcos administration wouldn’t want to lose the Senate to allies of the Dutertes, especially with the looming impeachment trial of VP Sara.

Furthermore, without the support of Congress, the Marcos administration may find it difficult to push forward its legislative agenda.

I haven’t even mentioned the economic environment. Many businesses are waiting for the results of the May elections before making any major business move.

They know that a president who has enough allies at the Senate and the House can push forward the economic reforms that the business sector wants.

Over at the Duterte camp, their senatorial candidates don’t even need to do heavy lifting. All they need to do is to cry and remind the crowds that Rody Duterte is detained at the ICC in The Hague. It’s not an issue to his followers that he is facing crimes against humanity because of his bloody drug war which has resulted in the death of thousands of Filipinos.

With less than a month before the polls, what will Marcos do with Alyansa? Will he change the coalition’s strategy or bring in a new campaign manager who can better steer the campaign?

Or will Marcos take his usual nonchalant stance?

As it is now, Marcos’ approval ratings plunged by double digits – from 42 percent in February, to 25 percent, according to a Pulse Asia survey released last week.

On the other hand, VP Sara saw her approval ratings improve to 59 percent from 52 percent in February.

Clearly, the war between the Dutertes and the Marcoses is far from over, but whoever gets the most seats in the Senate will definitely win the current round.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on X @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen (Iris Gonzales) on Facebook.