The coup virus

Is the coup virus still alive, and after a long sleep, being reawakened?

The prospect of a coup used to spook Philippine presidents, because of the ouster of the first Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and then Joseph Estrada in 2001 in military-backed popular uprisings.

Former president Rodrigo Duterte denies trying to stir up destabilization efforts against the Marcos administration, which seems bent on stripping his daughter dearest of P650 million in confidential funds for 2024.

Duterte admitted meeting with some former military generals, but insisted that destabilization and coup plots were not on the menu.

A retired military chief being linked to the alleged destabilization has described the story as hogwash, and those hurling the accusations as nutcases.

On the other hand, another ex-soldier claims that Duterte has in fact been plotting a coup along with mostly retired police officers who are products of the Philippine Military Academy.

There is, of course, a difference between destabilization efforts and actual plotting of a coup, and between plotting and launching a coup d’état.

And there’s a wide stretch between a launch and success. Only two coup attempts have succeeded in this country, the last way back in 2001. Both required a massive, dramatic outpouring of public support that became known as people power.

After EDSA Dos, the public disappointment with its principal beneficiary, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, soured Filipinos to people power. This could be gleaned from the failed mutinies against GMA throughout her nine years in power.

By most indications, Filipinos’ people power fatigue is long-term. But what about a coup? Has the military completely rid itself of the coup virus?

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Veteran mutineer Antonio Trillanes believes the coup virus is just in hibernation, and can still be reawakened, if military unrest is not sufficiently addressed.

In the 16 months of the Marcos administration, Trillanes cited two issues that particularly rankled military personnel, both in the active service and retired.

The first was the controversy over fixed terms of top military officers. The second was the proposal to overhaul the pension system for military and other uniformed personnel.

Both issues, however, were quickly addressed by the BBM administration and unrest was quelled, Trillanes told “The Chiefs” last week on Cignal TV’s One News.

So what might be used as a rallying point for destabilization or a coup attempt?

Duterte himself, although accused of encouraging civil disobedience, has said corruption could trigger public support for a coup. But he added that so far, he does not see the problem worsening to such abhorrent levels it could serve as the tipping point for a popular movement to oust the second President Marcos.

Destabilization talk gained traction mainly because Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Romeo Brawner himself, in a speech in Mindanao that he insists was taken out of context, sought to draw a line between destabilization “efforts” and a “plot.”

“If we say ‘plot,’ that’s a plan that’s about to be executed. What I said during my statement was that we were hearing rumblings of destabilization efforts – that’s the specific word I used, so I did not use the word ‘plot’,” Brawner explained.

What’s clear is that there are certain folks discussing with military officers issues causing unrest within the AFP.

A military spokesman clarified that in the speech before troops of the Western Mindanao Command, Brawner “merely mentioned the reported efforts by certain individuals to upset the peace and stability that the country is enjoying right now under the leadership of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.”

Another retired AFP chief, Eduardo Año, weighed in: “Yes, there were healthy and passionate exchanges or debates among some retired or former military officers and even some criticism against certain policies of the current administration, but they are within the bounds of our democratic space.”

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People are wondering why Duterte is acting up and speaking out against certain key members of the administration. Because his tirades have focused on the House of Representatives and Speaker Martin Romualdez, the speculation is that Duterte’s concerns revolve around his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio.

In the 2022 race, Duterte reportedly wanted to field his loyal aide, Bong Go, as the administration standard bearer. When daughter Sara decided to back BBM instead, perhaps to spite her father, Duterte reportedly preferred to see her as the standard bearer, since her ratings were higher than those of Marcos.

Maybe Daughterte didn’t want to go along with anything her father wanted. She slid down to the VP race and backed BBM instead. The body language between father and daughter when she took her oath as VP in Davao said a lot.

Good things come to those who wait… Duterte reportedly believes his daughter is still a shoo-in for the 2028 presidential race. There’s talk that Duterte was happy to stay on the sidelines as long as his daughter was in the spotlight, shining even brighter (according to the surveys) than BBM.

But with the nasty tambaloslos-led House cutting off Daughterte’s P650-million patronage budget for 2024 (supported by the Senate), and worse, with her approval ratings plunging, the elder Duterte is supposedly worried that the VP’s shot at the presidency is in peril.

There were two other elements that made EDSA 1 and 2 a success: support from the Catholic Church, and support from the US. Both loved GMA. She started her day by attending mass and gifted bishops with Pajeros. And she allowed the return of US troops to the Philippines for the first time since the shutdown of the bases, ostensibly in support of Operation Enduring Freedom – Washington’s post-9/11 global war on terrorism.

Rodrigo Duterte, till his last breath, is unlikely to ever get the support of the Church or Uncle Sam. He curses God; Bongbong Marcos attends mass with his family. And after Duterte’s six-year pivot to Beijing and unending perorations against the US and the European Union, BBM is a godsend for Washington.

Duterte could find little public enthusiasm even for destabilization efforts.