Suspended

The OCTA Research Group is considering suspending its political surveys to focus exclusively on analyzing data relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.

On both ends of its research spectrum, the all-volunteer group drew controversy the past few days. When it recommended “going early and going hard” against the rising trend in infections, possibly driven by the feared Delta variant, some of its critics branded the group as “alarmist.” Notwithstanding, government basically adopted OCTA’s recommendations, deciding to impose ECQ protocols in Metro Manila and a few other localities.

On the other end of its research spectrum, OCTA released the results of its nationwide voter preference survey a few days ago. This survey basically reinforced the findings of the Pulse Asia survey released over a month ago. It showed Sara Duterte and Rodrigo Duterte enjoying substantial leads for president and vice president, respectively.

The release of the voter preference survey compounded the political pressures bearing down on the independent research group. A bunch of apparently idle legislators called for an unwarranted congressional inquiry into the composition and funding sources of the research team. OCTA welcomed the inquiry as an opportunity to inform the public of the nature of its work.

OCTA’s welcoming the inquiry does not, however, diminish the malice that obviously animates the legislators. One congressman sheepishly (and incoherently) explained the call for such an inquiry to be part of his quest for “clarity.” He might better pursue that quest by turning into a monk.

Should OCTA desist from doing voter data analytics, all of us lose.

On the eve of crucial presidential elections, we need all the data that can be mustered. It is not only the potential candidates who need the information the surveys offer to decide on their political play. We need this data to understand the disposition of the voters and the expectations they hold.

Asking people directly and drawing anecdotal information from them is not always the best way to understand our electorate. There is much to be learned from aggregating large numbers to understand what our people want. Polling has come to occupy an important place in modern democratic governance.

Should OCTA and the other polling firms desist from doing voter preference surveys, electoral strategists and ordinary citizens alike will be denied vital updated information. Everyone will be operating in the dark, relying on guesswork instead of data-based analysis.

The absence of updated polling information will be particularly disadvantageous for those ranking low in the last available surveys. The numbers from the last surveys will be frozen in the public mind. It is as if a dynamic political condition has been put in suspended animation.

Busy

In the last OCTA Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey, no surprising development was registered among those leading in the rankings. Sara Duterte pulled in 28 percent, Bongbong Marcos took 13 percent, Isko Moreno 11 percent, Grace Poe and Manny Pacquiao 10 percent apiece. These were the top choices tracked by other surveys and other polling outfits.

The really interesting numbers are those reported for the second rung of potential candidates. Leni Robredo, Alan Cayetano and Bong Go are tied in sixth place with 5 percent apiece. Tito Sotto polled 3 percent, Ping Lacson and Jojo Binay are tied at 2 percent apiece while Dick Gordon and Sonny Trillanes have 1 percent each.

Only about 6 percent are undecided. This is not enough to dislodge Sara from the top or to fuel the prospects for a new entrant to the race. The second choices of supporters of candidates who might back out will be important for second rung candidates seeking to improve their preference standing ahead of the actual campaign period.

Leni Robredo’s decline to just 5 percent voter preference despite her 100 percent name-recall and constant media visibility must be a disappointment for her supporters. Bong Go surprises us with his ability to be everywhere: by the President’s side at every public occasion, distributing an inexhaustible supply of relief goods to calamity-stricken communities and, when his time permits, at the Senate sessions where he was elected to. His 5 percent ranking must be a disappointment as well.

The only one of the 5 percent triumvirate who should be happily surprised at the numbers is Alan Peter Cayetano. He basically doubled his numbers from the previous survey. The Taguig congressman received his best support from the Visayas.

Since he yielded the Speaker’s post, Cayetano maintained a relatively low profile. Without the Speaker’s pulpit, he is disadvantaged on the visibility front. This is unlike Leni who exploited her post with a constant chatter about the way the administration is doing its work or Bong Go who is constantly in camera range beside the President.

Cayetano’s better-than-expected rating may be due to his advocacy for a P10,000 direct subsidy for every Filipino as a way to stimulate our economy from its receded condition. It could also be due to the work he and his colleagues in the Balik sa Tamang Serbisyo (BTS) have done in supporting small business owners hit by the economic crisis.

One cannot discount the residual goodwill bequeathed by his father Rene “Compañero” Cayetano. To this day, both Alan and his sister Pia use the “Compañero” tag in their official ballot registry.

Alan Cayetano has been using his quiet days crafting a 5-year economic recovery plan for the country. He has approached some of the leading presidential contenders, hoping they buy into his plan. In a word, the legislator has been busy even as he might not be the most visible.

Although not aligned with the more emphatic electoral blocs, he could still influence the electoral game.