All of us will pay dearly for Donald Trump’s foolhardiness.
Immediately, we will pay more for fuel at the pumps. International crude oil prices spiked sharply in the hours after a US drone assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and his deputy in Baghdad.
Should the situation in that volatile region deteriorate, we might have to undertake massive evacuation of our migrant workers. The remittance flow, on which our economy depends, could be reduced. Eventually, that will reflect in dropping domestic demand and a lower rate of economic expansion.
Global growth is predicted to be weak this year. Should a shooting war engulf the world’s most important oil-producing region, global growth will be even weaker. The tens of millions who might be lifted from poverty by robust global growth will be forced to wallow in misery.
For now, we wait with bated breath for whatever retaliatory action Iran may choose to undertake to avenge the death of Soleimani.
Revered
We see in the scale of funeral marches held in several Iranian cities the great reverence for Soleimani.
The brilliant general is said to be the second most powerful man in his country. At the age of 22, he commanded a whole division during the Iran-Iraq war. As head of the Quds force, the elite units of the Revolutionary Guards, he is a master of asymmetrical warfare. His negotiating skills enabled him to build alliances and wield great influence over a vast expanse stretching from the Gulf of Oman to the coasts of the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Americans dismiss Soleimani as a terrorist, conveniently forgetting that he was a vital ally in the broad coalition that crushed the ISIS. He organized mainly Shiite militia units to accomplish that goal and forged partnerships with both the Assad government in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Baghdad. On the morning he was killed, he was bearing a message from the Saudis for the Iraqi prime minister.
Trump’s decision is basically an extrajudicial killing of a high official on the sovereign ground of a third country.
In addition, the decision to undertake lethal action in a foreign country was taken without congressional consent. Trump administration officials are having a hard time convincing the US Congress that Soleimani represented an “imminent” threat to American security. The general had just stepped out of a regular flight from Lebanon.
It is notable that none of America’s allies have endorsed the assassination of Soleimani. The act escalates tensions in an already volatile region and the long consequences of what happened could not be fully discerned.
Trump is in this adventure all by himself. He reaps the grapes of wrath from his constant bullying of all of America’s traditional allies and from his unrepentant unilateralism.
Dynamite
Joe Biden had the best description for what Trump has done: he has thrown dynamite into a box of tinder.
This is so Trump. The man cannot think through a complex strategy. He has no patience for building consensus. He decides off the cuff. By ordering the murder of Soleimani, US strategy in the Middle East is now in complete chaos.
Before this murder, the US was trying to cut the costs of its military presence by forcing Iran to negotiate. Iran cannot now be disposed to talk after what happened. Meanwhile, thousands of troops are being rushed from the US mainland to reinforce American bases as Iranian retaliation seems imminent.
For years, Soleimani worked to reduce US influence in Iraq. By his death, he might have achieved that goal.
Hours after Soleimani was killed, Washington ordered all Americans in Iraq to leave the country. The American ambassador was evacuated from his own embassy. After rowdy demonstrations in the Green Zone, consular services were suspended in the Baghdad facility.
Iraq’s parliament just passed a resolution asking US forces to leave. A friend has now become an angry adversary.
A few months ago, Trump gave in to Turkey’s request for US troops to be withdrawn from northeastern Syria to clear the way for Turkish troops to pour in and create a “safe zone.” That meant dislocating the Kurdish communities who have loyally fought alongside the US against the ISIS.
As US troops withdrew, Kurdish citizens were seen pelting their vehicles with potatoes. That was apt response to a glaring act of betrayal.
Ebb
The Saudis, who were not consulted before Trump ordered the murder of Soleimani, now bear the brunt of whatever unhealthy outcomes result from it. Already tied down fighting Iran-supported forces in Yemen, the country now faces the peril of missile strikes from the north.
The Israelis fear Iran developing its nuclear capability. By unilaterally withdrawing from a treaty that might have regulated Iran’s processing of radioactive material and now by blatantly killing that country’s most revered general, Trump frees Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran recently announced it would do so.
Turkey is sending troops to Libya, a country torn by civil war. That decision alarms the Saudis. No one now wields leadership over the Arab countries.
American influence in the Middle East is now at its lowest ebb. Murdering a general much loved by Shiite Muslims will not solve that predicament.
As a perfect storm gathers strength in this volatile region, Trump hides his cowardice by threatening to bomb “cultural sites” in Iran if Tehran retaliates. The UN defines this as a war crime.
After the Iraqi parliament voted to ask US forces to leave their country, a silly Trump now threatens them with economic sanctions. The Pandora’s Box is already open.