Looming dangers in 2018

The global economic outlook for 2018 looks promising, with the trajectory expected to continue rising on anticipation that businesses will keep booming, per capita income in many parts of the world will be growing, and that trade will continually increase. The first week of this year saw global stocks reaching record highs, with trading volumes surging in the US, Europe and Asia.

Despite the bright economic outlook that is undoubtedly riding on the heels of a strong end to 2017 (which according to the International Monetary Fund turned out to be the best year since 2010 for the global economy), global analysts say that we are faced with many issues, challenges and threats that could bring the world on the brink of disaster. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in fact issued a New Year’s “red alert” about the “new dangers” and conflicts that could affect the world, among them the threat of nuclear weapons, climate change and xenophobia.

New York-based political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group issued a report listing 10 geopolitical risks the world faces this year; the International Crisis Group headquartered in Brussels, Belgium enumerated top 10 conflicts while the Geneva-based South Center – a think-tank for developing countries – also outlined critical issues and trends that everyone should watch out for in 2018. From Africa to Europe to Asia and the Middle East, there is a roiling cauldron of potentially explosive conditions and situations whose ramifications could be disastrous.

My sources from various intelligence groups tell me that there is absolutely no doubt that the most sensitive issue involves North Korea and the rising tension caused by its continuing provocative behavior, with many convinced that Kim Jong Un will continue testing nuclear bombs and missiles. Intelligence analysts are nervous about the increasing capability of North Korea to target the US mainland, and coupled with the tough rhetoric from US president Donald Trump, the situation could escalate with devastating consequences.

During a New Year press conference following a visit to the Ise Shrine, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan is facing a security situation that is the most severe since the Second World War because of North Korea’s “unacceptable provocations.” The government of Japan recently approved a record-high budget of $46 billion for its military, with defense reinforcement against NoKor ballistic missiles getting the biggest allocation.

In Iran, the civil protests triggered by something as innocuous as the rising cost of eggs may seem to be slowing down, but the underlying tension continues to simmer with activists denouncing corruption and calling for regime change. Intelligence officials are closely watching the situation, saying it could evolve into something more serious that could impact the world.

A pressing question is whether US president Donald Trump would certify the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran this mid-January or not. The deal between Iran and six global powers – the US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany – calls for the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran which in return would scale back its nuclear program.

Some agree that Trump should decertify the deal saying Iran has been violating the terms anyway, and that the deal freed up funds that allowed Tehran to expand its military adventurism and suppress dissent. On the other hand, some insist that canceling the deal would be playing into the hands of Ali Khamenei who has accused Western governments of fueling discontent. Since Iran plays a key role in the multiple crises faced by the region with its involvement in Syria and Yemen – where the ongoing civil war has been characterized as “a humanitarian catastrophe” – it would be prudent for Western leaders to handle Iran with caution.

One other critical issue is the impact of climate change, considered by many scientists as “the most significant threat of our time.” As the Arctic ice caps continue to melt due to increased global warming, extreme weather events all around the world will occur: severe flooding, droughts, water shortages, heat waves and severe winters. People in Washington, D.C. told me that the cold weather we are experiencing now at 12 degrees below zero is probably one of the coldest they have seen in years.

Closer to home, the specter of ISIS could still loom despite the government’s success in Marawi. The militant group’s defeat in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria does not mean its threat has been diminished because it still has a significant stockpile of arms. Groups that have given allegiance to ISIS have also created cells in Afghanistan, Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, with the Philippines specifically cited. Intelligence sources also say ISIS has shifted its strategy and is now igniting sectarian insurgencies, with militants from one battle reinforcing ISIS-affiliated groups in other countries.

As everyone knows, the illegal drugs trade has been a major source of funding for terrorists, which is why governments are intensifying efforts to curb the illegal drugs trade. A few days ago, the Australian Navy seized 3.5 tons of drugs in the waters in Middle East worth an estimated $181 million – just a week after it intercepted another shipment of drugs worth $415 million.

But despite these looming dangers, many are hopeful that the world will overcome these challenges as long as world leaders are prepared to sit down and settle conflicts through dialog instead of force. For many Filipinos, 2018 is still very promising. If anything, President Rodrigo Duterte has received the highest trust rating in decades – a big opportunity for him to make really significant changes in our country and offer a “glimmer of hope” for the greater good of the greater number of people.

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