It is one of those times when we watch with awe as an irresistible force rushes head-on toward an immovable object. Usually, in such instances, neither emerges unscathed.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy responded heavy-handedly when the autonomous government of Catalonia proceeded with a referendum on the region’s political future. That referendum was declared unconstitutional by Spain’s constitutional court. The Spanish police was sent in to prevent the referendum from being held, resulting in numerous clashes with Catalan nationalists.
The heavy-handedness is widely considered a blunder. It inflamed emotions and emboldened the autonomous parliament of Catalonia.
Only 43 percent of voters turned up for the referendum. But it produced a 90 percent vote for independence.
Catalan president Carles Puigdemont called his parliament to vote on the independence question. The majority of them chose independence from Spain.
The government in Madrid has since withdrawn Catalonia’s autonomy, dissolved the region’s parliament and called for new regional elections. The Catalan nationalists pledged a peaceful and democratic resistance.
Puigdemont acted with audacity on the independence issue that deeply divides the Catalans. He could end up a pariah in Europe. The rest of the European Union is cool to the prospect of Catalonia seceding from Spain. No one wants the drama and the uncertainty that goes with such a bold move. The polls indicate the anti-independence Catalan vote will win narrowly in new elections.
In an era of globalization, when national boundaries lose importance, the sudden rise of Catalan nationalism might seem odd. But not if we set this in a larger context where nationalist sentiments seem resurgent.
The UK narrowly won a regional referendum pushed by Scottish nationalists. The entire UK eventually decided, again by the narrowest of margins, to leave the European Union. Brexit, far from discouraging the Scottish nationalists, reinvigorated the movement to secede from the union. The vast majority of Scots favor remaining within the EU.
In many countries of the EU, the reaction to mass immigration from the Middle East took the form of reasserting nationalism. If the nationalist parties were not gaining votes, they were at least speaking with a louder voice.
In the case of Catalonia, there has been a growing feeling that the region is giving more to Spain than it is getting from the union. Catalonia is one of Spain’s wealthiest regions. With 16 percent of the population, Catalonia contributes 19 percent of the country’s GDP. Catalonia contributes a disproportionate 25.6 percent of Spain’s total exports and receives 20.7 percent of total foreign investments flowing into the country.
With a well-formed cultural identity, including a distinct language, it is easy for the Catalans to imagine they should have their own nation-state. The feeling was reinforced by Spain’s recent economic troubles.
But if Spain allows Catalonia to go its own way, this can only encourage other ethnic groups (the Basques especially) to play for more autonomy. Besides, in the twilight of the nation-state, nationalism seems an oddity.
Kurdistan
It is not only in Catalonia that a central government confronts a region demanding independence. The Kurds in Iraq have also declared independence from that Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.
The Iraqi Kurds took the brunt of the fighting against the largely Sunni ISIS militants. They see independence as the natural outcome of their efforts. The Kurdish region of Iraq is a self-governing entity, independent in everything except in name.
All the countries in the region, however, reject an independent Kurdish area. Iran, Turkey and Syria have significant Kurdish minorities within their borders. The Turks have been fighting a bloody civil war with armed Kurdish nationalists, some of these deployed to fight in Syria and Iraq.
All three countries fear that an independent Kurdish region in Iraq will spur secessionist movements in their backyards. Iraq, for its part, sent in troops to expel the Kurds from rich oilfields occupied by the Kurdish militia.
More than Catalonia, the resurgence of Kurdish nationalism will likely result in actual fighting. The Kurds are a distinct people. When the British drew the national boundaries in the area as they prepared to withdraw from colonial occupation, they forgot to provide for an independent Kurdistan.
The time has come for the matter to be settled by insistent Kurdish nationalists willing to fight to win a homeland.
Bangsamoro
All these developments lead us to the question of deepening the autonomy granted the Muslim communities in Mindanao.
Many fear that creating a Bangsamoro entity will serve as stepping stone to eventual secession. Autonomy, in the Philippine south, has been viewed by many in the organized movements as a transitional condition. There are influential voices that see eventual independence as the end-state.
Those who oppose a “basic law” for an entity called the Bangsamoro likewise fear that deeper autonomy will militate against national assimilation. It will merely function as a launching pad for independence movements down the road.
Catalonia’s evolution from a region enjoying substantial autonomy from Spain to one eventually demanding independence will reinforce the arguments of those who say granting a Moro “substate” will undermine the integrity of our nation-state. It will impede integration and provide a ready-made mechanism for demanding independence down the road.
There are enough Moros reluctant to call themselves “Filipinos.” They blame “imperial Manila” for their marginalization and backwardness. That sort of narrative encourages the belief that the formation of a separate nation is the solution to their troubles.
All the elements that explain resurgent nationalism elsewhere – victimhood, the sense minority group lose more than they gain from staying within the nation-state – are present in Mindanao.