It is said that ASEAN at the age of 50 years is facing a midlife crisis. This is a time when individuals need to evaluate their life and make drastic changes in their lifestyles. The same can be said of this grouping of 10 Southeast Asian countries.
ASEAN is now facing a great deal of uncertainty because of the changing shape of power in the region. In 1967, when ASEAN was created by the Bangkok Declaration, the original five members were small countries seeking protection in a region beset by great power competition. This was the height of the Cold War between the Western world and the Communist countries. In the middle of Southeast Asia, it was also the height of the Vietnam War.
For the original members the biggest external threat was the spread of Communist insurgency which was then supported by Communist China. Solidarity was considered necessary in order to maintain sovereignty. But even then ASEAN depended on a loose structure and consensus for its decision making process. It remained a region unable to present a strong front and became the victim of machinations by the great powers.
ASEAN in flux
The think tank Stratfor recently gave this assessment of the ASEAN during its 50th anniversary:
“These challenges continue to shape members’ responses to the evolving geopolitical balance. For some time, China and its growing economic, military and political clout were counterbalanced by the United States and its long-standing security and economic infrastructure in the region. But now that appears to be changing. The United States has retreated from the regional trade agenda (Trans Pacific Partnership) and faces suspicion of disengagement, while China is expanding its military activity and shoring up its trade and diplomacy initiatives. At the same time, Japan – though less so than Russia – is making up for missed diplomatic and security opportunities by reaching out to Southeast Asia. In the midst of all this, states in the region are striving to find their footing.
Against this backdrop comes the 50th anniversary of ASEAN – as well as a new set of challenges. Chief among them is a move by the new Philippine government to temper its six years of hostility toward China. In a risky balancing act, Manila did this without compromising its security alliance with the United States while also broadening its strategic portfolio by making connections with Japan and Russia. Malaysia and Thailand have largely followed its lead, though each must consider its respective domestic circumstances. Vietnam and Singapore, on the other hand, have stepped up efforts to align with the United States, Japan and other powers in order to collectively counterbalance Beijing. Indonesia has pursued a middle track between the Philippines and Vietnam, stressing neutrality while bolstering its own defences and strategic standing.”
South China Sea
The South China continues to be the center of the biggest security challenge to the ASEAN; but, it has also proven to be its most divisive issue. In past meetings, the group has been unable to even mention Chinese militarization in the South China Sea principally through the efforts of Cambodia, China’s closest ally. It was again expected that the same thing would happen at this foreign ministers’ meeting.
Surprisingly, the final ASEAN communiqué contained a stronger language that was anticipated. The statement read: “We discussed extensively the matters relating to the South China Sea and took note of the concerns expressed by some Ministers on the land reclamations and activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region...We emphasized the importance of non-militarization and self restraint in the conduct of all activities including those mentioned in the DOC (Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea) that could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions in the South China Sea.”
Only some ministers?
One very intriguing part of the statement is the one that said “...the concerns expressed by some Ministers...”Obviously there were Ministers who did not agree that “....the land reclamations and activities [ by China] in the area...” have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region. I am sure Cambodia was one of those who did not express concern. What other countries were not concerned? The ASEAN foreign ministers also adopted a framework for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea after two decades of negotiation. The framework is non-binding and does not include China’s militarization and island building.
These two indecisive announcements are the result of ASEAN’s consensus decision making. There is clear division on whether to confront or cooperate with China. It has been reported that Vietnam repeatedly pushed for stronger wording and a binding code of conduct.
The visit of United States Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to the region has been viewed as a possible renewal of American presence in Asia. Meetings with the heads of state of two former close allies of the United States – Philippines and Thailand – may prove crucial. However, I believe that the United States is much more concerned with North Korea than with the South China Sea.
The ASEAN nations, however, see North Korea as a secondary issue. Its biggest potential challenge will be the future China-US relations which could deteriorate if the United States perceives that China is unwilling to take any action against North Korea. The next few months could see further lead to escalation of tensions between the two great powers. Most of the ASEAN nations are hoping this will not happen because only a few are eager to take sides.
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