In a state of flux

In June this year, neophyte Sen. Grace Poe started making waves in politics after she dislodged Vice President Jejomar Binay from his consistent hold of the top spot in mock polls for the May, 2016 presidential elections.

Through the years, Binay has been topping mock polls by both Pulse Asia and the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

However, from out of nowhere, Poe wrested from Binay the first quarter results of the mock polls in both Pulse Asia and SWS. Making no secret of his presidential bid since day one in office, the Vice President’s popularity soared to new heights until corruption allegations over projects he did while he was still mayor of Makati City began pulling him down.

Adopted daughter of the late movie action star Fernando Poe Jr. and actress Susan Roces, Poe counted on much support from her parents’ base of Filipino fans. Thus, when she first ran in the May, 2013 elections, Poe topped the Senate race even though she was only a “guest” candidate of the 12-man Liberal Party (LP) Senate ticket of President Benigno “Noy” Aquino III.

Earlier appointed as chairperson of the Movie & Television Review & Classification Board (MTRCB), Poe emerged as the most popular choice even among veteran politicians who ran in that senatorial race. She also edged out returning senators who ran but lost in the 2013 elections.

Political pundits attributed Poe’s gaining so much support in the first three years of her being senator to her handling of the Senate investigation into the January 25 Mamasapano incident. As chairperson of the Senate committee on public order, Poe did not spare President Aquino from accountability in the mishandling of the botched Oplan Exodus.

Even in the vice presidential mock polls, Poe also lorded over other possible candidates for the position. Sen. Poe’s meteoric rise in the polls took everyone by surprise since she had not indicated any interest to run for higher public office.

Poe’s gaining the top slot turned out to be no fluke. More than a year before the May 2016 elections, Poe kept the lead over Binay in the succeeding second quarter presidential mock polls of Pulse Asia and SWS.

She got 30 percent of 1,200 respondents of Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan Survey, taken from May 30 to June 5. Poe’s rating significantly improved from 14 percent in the Pulse Asia’s March, 2015 poll. Hounded by alleged over-priced contract for the Makati parking building and the mayor’s other pet projects, Binay fell to second place, with 22 percent of Filipinos supporting his presidential bid, or a seven-point drop from 29 percent in March.

Ana Maria Tabunda, research director of Pulse Asia Research, explained: “The main factor (in the drop in Binay’s rating) is the negative news on the VP.”

From August 20, 2014 until May 28 this year, a special sub-committee created by the Senate Blue Ribbon chaired by Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III conducted its televised public hearings on the allegations against the Vice President, including his son, incumbent Makati Mayor Junjun Binay.

A triumvirate of Pimentel, Senate majority leader Alan Peter Cayetano and Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV pounded the Vice President on these corruption allegations.

The Senate conducted a record-breaking 21 public hearings on the allegations against the former Makati mayor. Before the Senate came out on May 28 with its partial committee report on these corruption allegations, the same complainants against ex-mayor Binay filed separate graft cases against him before the Ombudsman.

Fast forward. Cayetano and Trillanes are now running as vice presidential candidates. Cayetano is the running mate of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte who was nominated by Pimentel’s PDP-Laban as its party’s presidential standard-bearer. The Magdalo of Trillanes adopted Poe as their presidential standard-bearer.

The latest results of mock polls of the SWS and Pulse Asia validate the effects of negative news on candidates.

Fighting disqualification cases filed against her one after the other, residency and citizenship issues over Poe’s head may cost her presidential bid. For now, the seven-man Commission on Elections (Comelec) has doomed her chances with a final ruling to disqualify her from next year’s presidential race. She pins hope the Supreme Court (SC) could save the day for her.

Binay’s Senate woes were Poe’s gains in the past. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Poe’s Comelec woes are Binay’s gains.

Binay regained his lead in the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted from Dec. 4 to 11. As the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) standard-bearer, Binay got 33 percent of the probable votes. This was a big jump by 19 percentage basis points from the 14 percent he garnered in September. In the same Pulse Asia survey, Duterte and Poe, with 23 and 21 percent, respectively, were statistically tied at second place.

Five months before the 2016 elections, Binay and Poe were statistically tied, on the other hand, in the SWS survey. Both received 26 percent voter preference based on the findings of the pre-election survey of SWS from Dec. 12 to 14.

In the vice-presidential race, Poe’s running mate Sen. Francis Escudero retained his lead in both the SWS and Pulse Asia mock polls. But since Poe and Escudero are registered at the Comelec as “independent” candidates, the latter cannot substitute as presidential bet in case Poe fails to muster SC ruling in her favor.

In the race for the Senate in next year’s election, Sen. Vicente Sotto III continues to lead the pack in SWS and Pulse Asia mock polls. Sotto heads the 12-man senatorial ticket of Poe-Escudero tandem. The re-electionist senator believes all is not lost yet for Poe at this point despite the adverse ruling of the Comelec on her presidential candidacy.

Sotto is naturally optimistic for Poe. After all, he once served as national campaign manager of her late father who ran but lost to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in the May, 2004 elections. Sotto is unperturbed though over possibly losing again his standard-bearer, this time by technicality even before the presidential race could start.

With 54 million registered voters, the most binding survey will come on the May 9 elections next year. But for now, political fortunes are in a state of flux like shifting sands.