Two recent events in the West Philippine Sea have been cause for celebration in the Philippines. The first and most important was the ruling by The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration stating that the court has jurisdiction to hear the Philippine maritime claims filed against China over disputed areas in the West Philippine Sea. Two days before the court ruling, an American warship sailed very close to one of the artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea where China had built an airfield.
The two events happened within days of each other. However, it does not seem like there was any direct link. US Defense Secretary Ash Carter had already said that the United States planned to sail “anytime and anywhere” as long as international law justified freedom of navigation.
Why only now?
Geopolitical observers have taken the intrusion of an American warship into China-held territory in stride. The more frequent query is, why did it happen only now? In fact, by refusing to enter the disputed maritime areas, the US may have indirectly encouraged China to build bases in the South China Sea.
This non-action also led to speculation that the US realized that sailing into those waters would be considered a provocation by China; and, the US was not prepared to counter China’s expected aggressive response. The Economist magazine has its own interpretation of the possible change in US policy:
“Before authorizing USS Lassiter’s mission, the Obama administration waited until after President Xi Jinping’s state visit to America last month, perhaps not wanting to sour the atmosphere. That Mr. Xi was so dismissive of American concerns about China’s island building in the South China seems to have prompted Barack Obama to agree to a FONOP [freedom of navigation operation] the Pentagon had been urging for months.”
American allies in Asia and those who have territorial disputes with China will, of course, be cheered by this show of American counter aggressiveness. Aside from Japan, no other Asian country has the capability to challenge China in these disputed waters.
Another observation is that the United States seems to have changed its policy in terms of the use of force in international affairs. Obama started his presidency by declaring the United States will withdraw ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. He seemed to have seriously attempted to withdraw American military and naval presence from the rest of the world.
In the past three years, challenges in Europe by Russia; in the Middle East by ISIS and other jihadist groups; and in Asia by China has apparently forced the United States to change American foreign policy direction.
First, Obama announced it would not totally withdraw from Afghanistan. Then, it announced the sending of “boots on the ground” in Syria. This action is perceived to be in answer to the growing presence of Russian troops in Syria. Then the US Navy has been authorized to challenge the growing military presence of China in the South China Sea.
Obama’s foreign policy has always emphasized multilateralism instead of unilateral action which was characteristic of the Bush administration. Before the start of the air attacks on ISIS forces, the United States first organized a Grand Coalition of 60 countries.
There has been speculation that the future Freedom of Navigation warships sailing into the South China Sea would be composed of vessels from several countries. Within a few days after the US warship sailed within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese-built artificial island, the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force and the US Navy held a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea. A Japanese destroyer and a US aircraft carrier were exercising together in the disputed maritime waters.
This could be the beginning of a formal coalition among nations looking for a way to counter China’s territorial aggression in East Asia.
Effect of arbitration ruling
The ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration to hear the maritime claim of the Philippines clearly weakens China’s international standing. It also benefits the claims of the Philippines and other claimant states like Vietnam and Malaysia.
There will be many legal luminaries that will try to predict the final rulings of the Permanent Court next year. Many different and separate issues will be subject to the court’s rulings. I am interested in two specific rulings.
China does not occupy Scarborough Shoal, rocks just 100 nautical miles from the Philippines with a 12-nautical mile territorial sea. China controls access to the lagoon and have forced Filipino fishermen from their historic fishing grounds. China’s coercion includes ramming and shouldering Philippine ships and harassment of Filipino fishermen.
The Philippines has specifically requested that the tribunal find that Chinese law enforcement tactics around Scarborough Shoal are in violation of UNCLOS and the International Regulations for the Prevention of Collisions at Sea. A favorable ruling will mean that any ramming and harassment of Filipino fishermen and ships in the Scarborough Shoal will be considered as internationally unlawful. If China continues its harassment, the world will consider their actions illegal.
If the tribunal rules that the Ayungin Shoal, located 105 nautical miles west of Palawan, is in the Philippine EEZ, the eight Marines aboard the BRP Sierra Madre may be resupplied by the US Navy in accordance with the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty. Any interference by China can be considered as a violation of the Freedom of Navigation.
China’s reaction has been predictable. Vice Foreign Minister Liu said: “ We will not participate and we will not accept arbitration.” If the Permanent Court on Arbitration does come out with some favorable rulings, the decision to seek recourse through international rule of law will yet prove to be one of the greatest legacies of this administration.
Writing classes for kids and teens
Young Writers’ Hangout on Nov. 7 (1:30 pm-3 pm) and Write and Craft Your Book on Nov. 14 (1:30-4:30 pm) at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street. For registration and fee details contact 0917-6240196/ writethingsph@gmail.com.