He just could not help it. As he had done in most of his speeches the last two months, President Aquino in last Monday’s SONA gave broad hints about who might win his endorsement for the 2016 elections.
He has been accused of premature electioneering for all those awkward references to his possible successor. He feels compelled to make them anyway, as if concerned that his endorsement might ultimately not matter at all — or not be sought.
The hints, however, are constantly vague. It is as if, as in his love life, he is afraid to commit, much less to take the plunge.
His mentioning of his desired successor in the last SONA is probably the most significant instance yet of this bizarre compulsion to do electioneering. That event, with all the controversies besieging his presidency, marks his descent into lame duck status.
His base of support is softening. There is grumbling at the grassroots. Petty politicians are spitting into the wind to find guidance about emerging factional realignments. The value of Aquino’s endorsement is likely depreciating by the day.
The bigwigs of the LP, those responsible for inventing the “disbursement acceleration program” as a virtual war chest for party-building, naturally expect Aquino to endorse the party’s chosen standard-bearer. They expect this Aquino to be loyal to the party, unlike his mother who, at the last moment, turned her back on her party and chose to anoint a maverick.
The precedent of Cory anointing Fidel Ramos instead of Ramon Mitra in 1992 is a specter that haunts LP bigwigs. History could very well repeat itself — not so much because of the determinism of genetics but because of the facts on the ground.
Mar Roxas is the presumptive LP standard-bearer. The man, however, seems to have a rare knack for losing votes at every turn. It is a reverse Midas Touch: the harder he tries, the more votes he loses.
He could not handle a hammer properly, indicating he never drove down a nail in his cloistered life. He never realized how heavy a sack of rice could be until he tried to lift one before the cameras. All Mar’s recent photo-ops have been disastrous.
He is coming back rather than surging ahead. He is sinking like an iron ball. Each new poll shows him getting a smaller share of voter preference. Even DAP might not be able to save him.
But not to worry, the LP bigwigs must be thinking, mainly to comfort themselves. The party has a Brutus in the wings.
Franklin Drilon is said to be quietly maneuvering in the shadows, preparing for a presidential run in case Roxas simply sinks into the muck. If Roxas does not have a lock on the party’s DAP-filled war chest, it will not be beneath Drilon to grab it along with the LP standard. Remember how he praised Gloria Arroyo to high heavens one day and then joined the mutiny against her the next.
The problem with this alternative LP scenario, however, is that Drilon is not much better a vote-getter than Roxas is. Since Drilon as president is so unthinkable for many, the pollsters have not included him in the recent surveys. Maybe they will do so in the next ones, upon request.
Drilon might improve his stock if he behaves a little more independently, as our people expect a Senate president to be. But he missed his opportunity in that laughable hearing on the DAP.
If he had a little more class, he could have thrown safe jabs at the beleaguered budget secretary, questions the latter could easily dodge. That he did not do. Instead, he chose to be totally obsequious, licking Abad’s ass instead of exercising statesmanship. After that, he found the gall to call on his discredited chamber to redeem itself.
We know why Aquino might anoint Roxas in defiance of the numbers. The former is captive to the thought that he owes the latter a favor. Roxas gave up his own presidential bid in 2010 to allow Aquino to run.
But what is the value of that “favor”? Roxas’ numbers in 2010 were only marginally better than his numbers were. The outcome of that elections, furthermore, tells us Roxas has the rare ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The elephant in the room, the stuff of LP nightmares, is Vice President Jejomar Binay.
In the latest surveys, Binay garners over 40% of voter preference. His share is larger than the combined total of all five other potential rivals. That is enormous, to put it lightly. All the usual strategists concede the next election is for Binay to lose.
Unlike the aristocrats of the LP, Binay connects with the masses. Although he has declared his presidential intentions early, he has gone about pursuing his political project quietly.
Aquino mentioned Binay in the SONA rather fondly, recalling how they went through the perils of a coup attempt together. Binay, according to his daughter, will welcome Aquino’s endorsement although his bid is not dependent on that. That could not have been phrased better.
There are enough reasons for Aquino to endorse Binay, not the least being that he is at the moment the most winnable. The VP proved an unwavering supporter of the President’s mother and is said to have the support of his sisters.
For the LP bigwigs, alas, the only way to take Binay out of the equation is to take him out of the game altogether. The VP needs to be thoroughly discredited, quickly, to prevent Aquino from radically reviewing his options.