Elections: Clear indicator for 2016

With the summer heat hitting all time highs, so too with the elections — judging from the wave of blast text messages going around that are mostly negative, some even bordering on the obscene and downright nasty. We’re beginning to suspect some of these unflattering messages against certain candidates could possibly come from their own coalition party supporters, with every candidate wanting to be on top or just make it to the Magic 12.

Already there are those planning to subvert the May 2013 elections, and these may not necessarily be candidates sitting on a precarious edge as far as winnability is concerned, but certain groups like mobile phone jammers who will try to delay the transmission of results to cast doubts regarding the outcome. The usual suspects like the New People’s Army is trying to take advantage of the campaign period through its extortion and terroristic activities, setting up their own checkpoints and demanding that candidates make a “donation” through so-called “permit to campaign” and even “permit to win” fees in areas controlled by the rebels. (Intelligence reports indicate that candidates in critical areas are asked to secure the permission of the NPA first before they can even visit certain places to campaign. And if candidates bring security escorts for their protection, they would be gunned down like what happened to Gingoog Mayor Ruthie Guingona.)

The usual critics (mostly coming from bid losers) also continue to raise questions about the Precinct Count Optical Scan machines and want the contract with Smartmatic canceled. But our Comelec insiders say it’s virtually all systems go for the upcoming polls. A lot is riding on the successful conduct of the automated polls and hopefully, things will turn out well with the Armed Forces and the Philippine National Police augmenting their troops especially in identified election hotspots particularly in Mindanao.

Obviously, the outcome of the Senatorial elections is being watched closely by Filipinos, but one of the most crucial is the “Thrilla in Manila,” with people waiting to see how former president Joseph Estrada will fare against incumbent mayor Alfredo Lim. This mayoralty race is a big gamble on the part of the former president because it will test whether the “Erap magic” — which was evident in the last decade from the 1998 presidential elections to the 2010 elections, with his wife Dra. Loi and Jinggoy winning as senators even while he was incarcerated.  Erap said he wanted to end his career with a bang and really, a loss on his part will reverberate loudly across the nation. On the other hand, the 83-year-old Fred Lim has really got nothing to lose except the opportunity to serve out his last term as mayor and retire earlier than he planned.

Erap’s family and close friends had tried to dissuade him from running for mayor, but knowing the character of the former president, he would go head-on once he makes up his mind like a true Aries ‑ his birth sign. Even during the last presidential elections, people were dissuading him from entering the race but Erap proved himself to be correct in a manner of speaking, because he landed in second place with close to 10 million votes ‑ which should tell you that his loyal base of supporters from the “masa” has remained intact over the years.

Recent surveys predict a 9-3 outcome in favor of the administration ticket, with the last spot a toss-up between team PNoy bet Jun Magsaysay and the United Nationalist Alliance’s Jackie Enrile and Gringo Honasan. President Noynoy Aquino though had vowed that none of the administration’s coalition candidates would be left behind, issuing instructions during the ASEAN Summit in Brunei for the coalition leaders to intensify the campaign and make a clean sweep of the Senatorial race.

While it would seem the Magic 12 will be dominated by Team PNoy bets, it is very clear that the two “almost certain” winners from UNA would be JV Ejercito Estrada and Nancy Binay ‑ giving you an indication that “Estrada” and “Binay” are political “brand names” that are supported by a solid following from the masses who comprise more than half of the voting population.

Currently, PNoy is enjoying one of the highest approval and trust ratings ever according to recent survey results from SWS that showed 74 percent expressing satisfaction with his performance. The same with the Pulse Asia survey that showed a 72 percent approval rating. All these developments are reinforcing perceptions that most of the administration candidates (who come from differing political parties) except for a few frontrunners are doing well primarily on the strength of the president’s popularity.

On the other hand, Vice-President Binay has also been consistently getting the highest trust and approval ratings among all government officials ‑ with 76 percent from Pulse Asia and 75 percent from SWS ‑ which could only explain why people believe and trust him when he says his daughter Nancy is qualified to become a senator. Definitely, a win for JV and Nancy will validate the continuing solid support for both Erap Estrada and Jojo Binay from the lower sector representing the bulk of the 52 million registered voters.

No doubt the implications of the upcoming senatorial polls will be the benchmark for this administration, with the outcome most likely giving us an indication of how the set up will be in 2016 ‑ with vice president Jojo Binay as the undisputed UNA standard bearer and senator Jinggoy Estrada most likely as his running mate going head-to-head against President Noynoy Aquino’s anointed successor ‑ who will be totally dependent on Noy’s continuing popularity.

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