Surveys and campaign

There is so much fussing over the two sets of survey results on the 12 probable winners in the Senate race based on the opinion polls separately released one after the other by the Social Weather Station (SWS) and the Pulse Asia Inc. The SWS and Pulse Asia surveys, aside from being independent of each other, have polled different respondents and were conducted during two different timelines.

In the SWS results released last week, the survey took place from Feb. 24 to 27 and used the 80 names in the official list of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) accepted as senatorial candidates. The Comelec list included the senatorial candidates from the administration’s Team Unity (TU), the Genuine Opposition (GO), independents (Ind) and other parties which fielded their own respective bets in the Senate race. The Pulse Asia, on the other hand, came out last Wednesday with the results of their survey conducted from Feb. 28 to March 5 and used also the same Comelec list.

Other than these basic differences, results of mock polls, whether by the SWS or Pulse Asia, are nothing but gauge of probable results of the voters’ choice that may or may not turn out into real votes when actual elections take place on May 14.

Based on the SWS survey results, if the elections were held now, the following candidates will get into the "magic 12 circle," listed according to the highest number of votes: 1—Sen. Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan (LP, Ind); 2 — ex-Sen. Loren Legarda (NPC, GO); 3 —Senate president Manuel Villar Jr. (NP, GO); 4 —Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano (NP, GO); 5 — Sen. Panfilo Lacson (UNO, GO); 6 — Rep. Francis "Chiz" Escudero (NPC, GO); 7 — Sen. Ralph Recto (NP, TU); 8 — ex-Sen. Vicente "Tito" Sotto III (NPC, TU); 9 — ex-Sen. John Osmeña (NPC, GO); 10 — Rep. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III (LP,GO); 11 — ex-Sen. Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan (Ind); and, 12 — Sen. Joker Arroyo (KAMPI, TU).

Within the bounds of the SWS statistical error are re-electionist Sen. Edgardo Angara (LDP, TU) and lawyer Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel (PDP, GO). Remember, the survey period of the SWS covered the first two weeks of the campaign period after the Feb. 12 deadline for filing to the Comelec of the certificates of candidacy by all senatorial aspirants.

From the Pulse Asia survey results, the following senatorial candidates entered the winning circle, also listed according to the highest number of votes: (1) Legarda; (2) Lacson; (3) Pangilinan; (4) Escudero; (5) Recto; (6) Villar; (7) Arroyo; (8) Aquino; (9) Angara; (10) Cayetano; (11) Honasan; and, (12) Sotto. Within the bounds of the Pulse Asia statistical error are the names of Pimentel and Gov. Vicente Magsaysay (TU). Take note, the Pulse Asia survey was taken during the third week of the campaign period.

At this stage, it is obvious from both surveys the Opposition bets have the upper hand in the Senate race. But more than a month after the 90-day campaign started, it is still anybody’s game. If you think surveys are reliable, read this very funny e-mail joke that is going the rounds of the internet and is very timely while the candidates are stepping up their campaign offensive to make it in the true survey that takes place on May 14 Senate elections.

While walking down the street one day, a powerful senator of the Philippines is tragically hit by a truck and dies. His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

"Welcome to Heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we’re not sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," says the senator.

"Well, I’d like to but I have orders from higher-up. What we’ll do is have you spend one day in Hell and one in Heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity."

"Really, I’ve made up my mind. I want to be in Heaven," says the senator.

"I’m sorry but we have our rules." And with that, St. Peter escorts the senator to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to Hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. From a distance is a club and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him, everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, hug him, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people. They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster and caviar.

Also present is the Devil, who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that, before he realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a big hug and waves while the elevator rises. The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens in Heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him. "Now it’s time to visit Heaven."

So 24 hours pass with the senator joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

"Well then, you’ve spent a day in Hell and another in Heaven. Now choose your eternity." The senator reflects for a minute, then he answers: "Well I would never have thought it, I mean Heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in Hell."

So Saint Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to Hell. Now the doors of the elevator open and he is in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags. The Devil comes over to the senator and lays an arm on his neck.

"I don’t understand," stammers the senator. Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and club and we ate lobster and caviar and danced and had a great time. Now all there is, is a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable.

The Devil looks at him, smiles and says, "Yesterday we were campaigning. Today you voted for us!"

The moral lesson from this internet joke: VOTE WISELY!!!!

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