Building credible deterrence with partnerships that deliver
The year has barely begun, yet another harrowing incident has already unfolded in Philippine waters.
On January 13, a Filipino fishing vessel operating near Panatag or Scarborough Shoal was harassed by a China Coast Guard ship and a People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel operating in close proximity.
The Chinese vessels executed aggressive and coercive maneuvers, closing in within dangerous range, blaring sirens, and deliberately blocking the fishing boat’s path. These actions were not only reckless; they directly endangered the lives of Filipino civilians simply trying to earn a living in their own traditional fishing grounds.
That this incident involved a Chinese warship alongside a coast guard vessel is particularly alarming. It underscores the increasingly militarized nature of China’s operations in the West Philippine Sea and signals what may lie ahead for 2026.
This was not a routine maritime encounter—it was a calculated display of force designed to intimidate, coerce and deter Filipinos from exercising their lawful rights.
While Chinese coercion in the West Philippine Sea is not new, incidents like this demonstrate a sustained and evolving pattern of aggressive, excessive and dangerous behavior across different parts of Philippine waters.
What were once episodic acts of harassment have hardened into a persistent campaign that systematically undermines regional stability and openly challenges the rules-based international order. These actions pose direct threats not only to national sovereignty but also to the safety of Filipino fishermen and maritime frontliners.
China’s behavior also reflects a sobering reality: Beijing is unlikely to stop unless given a compelling reason to do so. Diplomatic protests and restraint, while necessary, have not altered its conduct. History shows that coercive actors recalibrate only when faced with credible deterrence.
Building credible deterrence, therefore, is not a choice but a necessity.
Contrary to claims that the Philippines is unprepared or hesitant, the commitment to build credible deterrence is evident.
The Marcos Jr. administration has placed defense modernization at the center of its national security strategy, recognizing that sovereignty cannot be defended by rhetoric alone. This commitment is reflected most clearly in the recently signed 2026 General Appropriations Act.
For 2026, total new appropriations for the Armed Forces of the Philippines amount to P292.48 billion, a significant increase from P260.24 billion in 2025. This represents an increase of approximately P32.25 billion or 12.39%. The Philippine Air Force received P60.63 billion—up by 17.57%—while the Philippine Navy was allocated P59.93 billion, a 17.43% increase from last year.
These increases are not accidental. They align squarely with the administration’s strategic shift from internal security operations toward external defense, as embodied in the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept. In an archipelagic state facing growing maritime threats, air and naval capabilities are no longer optional—they are foundational.
Equally notable is the inclusion, for the first time, of a provision in the 2026 GAA allowing the government to borrow funds to modernize defense equipment.
This policy shift enables the Philippines to tap concessional overseas development assistance and other favorable financing arrangements to accelerate modernization while easing pressure on the national budget. It reflects an understanding that speed matters—and that falling behind is no longer an option.
Yet even with these gains, the reality remains stark: these efforts are still not enough.
The regional security environment is evolving faster than traditional procurement timelines allow. The Philippines is no longer in a position to catch up at its own pace. It must keep pace with rapidly advancing military capabilities in its vicinity.
Modernization delayed is deterrence denied.
This is precisely why President Marcos' strategy of deepening partnerships with like-minded countries is crucial. Deterrence in today’s Indo-Pacific is not built by any single country acting alone. It is collective, networked, and reinforced by shared values and mutual commitments.
Importantly, the Filipino public understands this. A recent Stratbase-commissioned Pulse Asia survey shows overwhelming trust in like-minded partners and strong public preference for the government to work with them in asserting the country’s rights.
Filipinos expressed the highest trust in the United States (82%), followed by Japan (64%), Canada (58%) and Australia (51%). These results affirm—and legitimize—the government’s current approach.
Public trust, however, is not just a measure of confidence. It is a strategic capital. And with that trust comes expectation.
The challenge now is for these like-minded partners to deepen and sustain their cooperation with the Philippines in ways that truly deserve the trust placed in them by the Filipino people.
The potential is already visible. Canada’s newly signed Status of Visiting Forces Agreement opens the door to expanded joint exercises and maritime cooperation.
A similar agreement with France is nearing completion. Japan has taken a major step forward with the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, complementing the Reciprocal Access Agreement already in force. Australia has doubled its civil maritime investments in the Philippines, strengthening maritime domain awareness and resilience.
What is needed now is operationalization.
Agreements must be translated into capabilities. Exercises must align with real-world contingencies. Assistance must be directed toward what the Philippines truly needs— maritime domain awareness, air and missile defense and the protection of civilians at sea.
When aligned effectively, these partnerships do more than enhance interoperability; they collectively build a deterrence posture credible enough to dissuade further coercion.
The harassment of a lone fishing boat at the start of the year is a reminder of what is at stake. Credible deterrence is not an abstract strategic concept—it is about ensuring that Filipino fishermen can fish without fear, that maritime frontliners can do their jobs safely, and that national sovereignty is defended not just in principle, but in practice.
Linar-Mae Orbista is a program and research manager for defense and security at the think tank Stratbase Institute.
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