Drought may affect 30 provinces in March — PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines — Thirty provinces in the Philippines are likely to face drought by the end of March due to El Niño, with weather bureau PAGASA forecasting below-normal rainfall conditions for most of the country.

El Niño, a phenomenon associated with extreme heat and drought, is gradually weakening, but its impacts will continue in the coming months. 

It is expected to persist from March to May, coinciding with the start of the warm and dry season this month.

“The rainfall forecast for March shows that most parts of the country will likely experience way below to below-normal rainfall conditions and the probability is high,” the weather agency said in an advisory released Wednesday.

According to PAGASA, Abra, Apayao, Aurora, Bataan, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Laguna, Metro Manila, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Pangasinan, Quirino, Rizal and Zambales could be grappling with meteorological drought by the end of the month.

Drought may also affect Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental.

Drought occurs when there is significantly below-normal rainfall conditions for three straight months.

Meanwhile, Batangas, Bulacan, Masbate, Pampanga, Tarlac, Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Negros Oriental, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay may experience dry spell, defined as three consecutive months of below-normal conditions. 

Dry conditions, or two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition, may affect Albay, Batanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Marinduque, Quezon province, Romblon, Sorsogon, Aklan, Northern Samar, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del Sur and Surigao del Norte.

The ongoing El Niño has caused over P1 billion in damage to the agricultural sector, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported. 

Up to one tropical cyclone may enter or develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month. The country may see fewer storms in 2024 than the average of 20, as it did last year, due to El Niño.

PAGASA also issued on Wednesday a La Niña Watch, indicating a more than 55% chance of the cooling climate pattern developing in the next six months.

The weather bureau stressed that historically, pre-developing La Niña events are characterized by below-normal rainfall. PAGASA said this suggests a possible slight delay in the onset of the rainy season “likely with the confirmed effects of the ongoing El Niño.”

La Niña refers to the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.