'Fabian' maintains strength, forecast to exit PAR by Thursday

This satellite image shows "Fabian" (In-fa), which intensified into a severe tropical storm on July 19, 2021
RAMMB

MANILA, Philippines (Updated 6:30 p.m.) — Severe Tropical Storm "Fabian" (In-fa) kept its strength as it remains almost stationary, PAGASA said on Monday afternoon.

The agency in its 5 p.m. bulletin said Fabian was last seen at 1,075 kilometers east northeast of extreme northern Luzon.

It maintained its 95 kilometers per hour peak winds, and gusts of up to 115 kph. 

PAGASA said there is still no storm signal raised in any part of the country, with the sixth storm to enter the Philippines this year remaining unlikely to bring heavy rainfall.

While such is the forecast, monsoon rains would still be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.

This is due to the southwest monsoon enhanced by Fabian and the tropical storm outside the country at west northwest of extreme northern Luzon. 

"However, residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously m onitor the tropical cyclone bulletins," PAGASA said, "as any further southward shift in the orientation of the forecast may result in the hoisting of Signal No. 1 over these areas."

Still due to the influence of the southwest monsoon, the western seaboard of Palawan including Kalayaan Islands will experience moderate to rough seas in the next 24 hours.

The weather bureau advised small seacrafts to take precautionary measures when going out in the sea, and advised inexperienced mariners to avoid navigating under the conditions.

PAGASA said Fabian will begin to move generally west northwestward in the next 12 hours. 

It could now exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by afternoon or evening on Thursday.

This was a change from the earlier forecast of sometime between Tuesday or Wednesday which forecasters attributed to a southward shift in the orientation of its track.

Forecast Position 

  • Tuesday afternoon: 900 km east northeast of extreme northern Luzon 
  • Wednesday afternoon: 770 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (Outside PAR)
  • Thursday afternoon: 590 km north northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (Outside PAR)

— Christian Deiparine

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