New COVID-19 cases in NCR down 30%

MANILA, Philippines — The average number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has decreased by around 30 percent over the past week, the OCTA Research group said yesterday.

Citing data from the Department of Health (DOH), the group said Metro Manila recorded an average of 1,644 new cases per day in the last seven days (May 8 to 14), down 30 percent from the preceding week (May 1-7),
when the average daily new COVID-19 cases per day in Metro Manila was 2,347.

The reproduction number, which indicates the number of persons that a positive individual can infect, also went down to 0.57 from 0.62 as indicated in OCTA’s report last Wednesday.

During the peak of the recent surge last March 29 to April 4, Metro Manila had a reproduction number of 1.54 and an average of 5,549 new cases per day.

In its latest report, OCTA noted that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate went down to 11.91 infections per 100,000 population.

Four local government units (LGUs) in the region were downgraded to “moderate risk” category after their average daily attack rate fell below the threshold of 10 infections per 100,000.

These were the cities of Navotas with 5.99, Malabon with 7.40, Manila with 8.33 and Caloocan with 10.20.

Taguig, which recorded an average of 88 new COVID
 cases per day over the past week, had the most significant drop in new cases at 57 percent.

OCTA fellow Guido David said they expect the numbers to continue on a downward trend despite the shift to general community quarantine (GCQ) in Metro Manila and nearby provinces, noting that “it seems like a slightly more expansive quarantine.”

Earlier, Malacañang said that the so-called National Capital Region Plus bubble – which includes the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal – will be under GCQ with “heightened restrictions.”

In an earlier interview with “The Chiefs” on Cignal TV’s One News/TV 5, OCTA fellow and molecular biologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said a gradual opening up is “reasonable” provided that the government is ready to respond should a surge occur in the future.