SWS: Noli, Villar top bets in 2010

MANILA, Philippines – Vice President Noli de Castro has remained the top choice of Filipinos to succeed President Arroyo in 2010, a recent survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) showed.

De Castro’s latest score, however, dropped by two percentage points from 31 percent in June to 29 percent in September, the SWS said.

Senate President Manuel Villar came in second with 28 percent, followed by Sen. Loren Legarda with 26 percent, according to the Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey.

The non-commissioned survey, fielded over Sept. 24 to 27, used face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults in Metro Manila, the balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson was fourth with 17 percent, followed by Sen. Francis Escudero (16 percent), former President Joseph Estrada (13 percent) and Sen. Manuel Roxas (13 percent).

Mrs. Arroyo was the choice of one percent of the respondents along with Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando, Senators Antonio Trillanes IV, Juan Ponce Enrile, Francis Pangilinan, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Richard Gordon, Jinggoy Estrada, Jamby Madrigal and Pia Cayetano, and former House speaker Jose de Venecia Jr.

Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. both received 0.5 percent.

Nine percent of the respondents could not give an answer and nine percent had no one to recommend, the SWS said.

The number of Filipinos who prefer Villar to be the next president went up by three points from 25 percent in June to 28 in September.

The scores of former president Estrada and Lacson also improved by two points and one point, respectively.

In the survey, the respondents were asked: “Under the present Constitution, the term of President Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new president in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Arroyo as president?

The respondents were allowed to give up to three names of presidential contenders.

The survey, made exclusive to BusinessWorld, has sampling error margins of ±2.5 percent for national percentages, ±6 percent for Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao, and ±4 percent for balance Luzon.

Meanwhile, results of the SWS survey commissioned by former senator Sergio Osmeña III found that former president Estrada was statistically tied with De Castro in the list of presidentiables for 2010.

The survey, also conducted between Sept. 24 and 27, showed that De Castro obtained 19 percent of the vote while Estrada obtained 17 percent, which is a statistical tie considering the error margin of three percent, the SWS said.

Villar was also tied with Estrada at 17 percent, a seven percent jump from his March rating of 10 percent, it said.

Senator Jonggoy Estrada topped the list of senatoriables for the 2010 elections, garnering 54 percent of votes in the commissioned survey, up from 51 percent in the March 2008 survey.

The young Estrada was followed by Roxas (51 percent), Cayetano (46 percent), Revilla (42 percent), Franklin Drilon (40 percent), Santiago (39 percent), Ralph Recto (36 percent), Jamby Madrigal (35 percent), Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel (33 percent), Osmeña (32 percent), Ramon Magsaysay Jr. (31) and Vicente Sotto III (29 percent).

‘Survey shows trust’

Vice President De Castro said yesterday the result of the latest SWS survey indicated the public’s continued trust and confidence in him.

“I appreciate their support and view it as an appreciation of my sincerity to seek solutions to their problems. I assure them that I will even double my efforts in serving them,” De Castro said.

“During these times of difficulty, nothing is more important to me than to continue serving our people faithfully, and maintaining the trust the underprivileged masses have given me since I entered public service,” he added.

The Vice President said it is not yet the right time for him to respond to calls for him to declare his intention to run for the 2010 presidential elections.

House Deputy Minority Leader Neptali Gonzales II urged De Castro to declare his intentions for 2010 to hasten the alignment of forces among supporters of the Arroyo administration.

Gonzales said De Castro should now announce whether he is running for president or seeking reelection as vice president, and under what party.

The lawmaker said most members of Lakas are likely to support De Castro if he would seek the presidency.

As Vice President, Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council (HUDCC) chair and presidential adviser on overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), De Castro said his plan for 2010 might lend political color to the performance of his duties.

De Castro said he has not given his commitment to join a particular political party but talks with various parties are ongoing.

Rich favored

Estrada, for his part, was quite surprised over the results of the latest SWS survey, stressing that “I was number two in the SWS survey dated September 24-27 commissioned by senator Serge Osmeña.”

Former senator Ernesto Maceda said a rich presidentiable may have been favored by the SWS in its recent survey.

In a telephone interview with The STAR, Maceda said the recent SWS survey cannot be considered accurate because it did not present any names of presidentiables to the survey respondents.

“There is one candidate, a rich candidate, who was able to penetrate the SWS and was favored by the survey firm in its result. If you will remember, the SWS survey commissioned by (former) senator Serge Osmeña showed that President Estrada is number two. The survey was conducted last September 24-27 (with 1,500 adults as respondents nationwide) and the SWS repeated that, but using a different question,” Maceda told The STAR.

Maceda did not name the rich candidate who may have allegedly manipulated the SWS survey.

He noted that the SWS survey commissioned by Osmeña specified the names of the presidentiables, including Estrada, in its question which read: “If the election were held today, whom will you vote- Joseph Estrada, Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Mar Roxas, Panfilo Lacson etc.?”

“The names were mentioned. But in the case of the recent survey, which is only a repetition of the survey commissioned by Sen. Serge Osmeña, no names were mentioned. That is why it cannot be considered accurate,” Maceda said. – With Pia Lee-Brago, Jose Rodel Clapano