Pulse Asia: Many Filipinos still unmoved by rallies

Since the jueteng corruption scandal began in early October, the country’s most serious political crisis has been a numbers game between Malacañang and the anti-Estrada opposition — a battle for the people’s hearts and minds.

In the midst of all the anti-Estrada or pro-Estrada rallies, those who remain unmoved by the rallies are slightly more than those who have become critical of the administration because of them, according to a tracking opinion poll conducted from Nov. 16 to Nov. 29 by Pulse Asia.

But Pulse Asia President Felipe Miranda said they’ve interviewed respondents who did not join the rallies not because they didn’t want to, but because they could not for one reason or another.

There were people who said they were critical or supportive of Mr. Estrada but decided not to join rallies, thinking that such demonstrations would scare off investors and eventually sink the country’s already-frail economy, Miranda said.

And there were those who said they would take to the streets if they don’t like how the impeachment trial either proceeds or ends, Miranda said.

And he added that, so far, from the way it looks, many people will take to the streets if the trial is rigged or Mr. Estrada wins an unfair acquittal.

That partly explains why the number of people who "have joined" rallies declined, Miranda said. It means that people are giving the impeachment process a chance to work – and they will not accept an unfair verdict.The survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points, will be conducted up to Dec. 20, two weeks after the start of Mr. Estrada’s historic impeachment trial on Dec. 7.

Out of the 660 Metro Manila residents polled to date, an average of nearly 40 percent said the rallies "had no effect, neither positive nor negative," on their view of the Estrada administration.

An average of 38 percent of those polled said the anti-Estrada rallies have made them "negative or more negative" and "critical of his administration."

On the other hand, an average of 21 percent of the respondents said they were "positive or more positive" and "supportive" of Mr. Estrada.
Although the number of people "critical" of the President rose and then tapered off, the number of people "supportive" of Mr. Estrada seemed to be decreasing.

As for the steadily declining number of people sympathetic to Mr. Estrada, Pulse Asia president and political analyst Felipe Miranda said it showed that Malacañang has been unable to use its "political capital" efficiently to win people to its side.

But, curiously, when the 300 respondents were asked if people "should join rallies which support or criticize the administration," an average of 43 percent of them said people "should join," while an average of 56 percent of them said people "should not join."

And when asked if they have joined "any rally which has something to do with supporting or criticizing the administration," an average of only eight percent "have joined" while the rest "have not joined."

What the figures mainly mean is that despite all that’s been said and done in marches for or against the President during the past weeks, many Filipinos either refuse to get caught in the fiercely divisive debate or just couldn’t be convinced to take a side, said Miranda.

That explains the greater number of people who said they "have not joined" any rally, and that the rallies have had "no effect" on them, and that people "should not join" them.