Retain or regain?

Tonight, the PBA Commissioner’s Cup will end and a new champion will be crowned. It’s Game 7 of the Finals between defending champion TNT and Barangay Ginebra in a battle of the ages. For TNT, the cry is to retain the title. For Ginebra, it’s to regain the throne that was last with the franchise in 2023.

Will it be a repeat of the previous Commissioner’s Cup which went the distance and TNT clinching in OT? Ginebra led, 3-2, in that series and TNT won the last two encounters to wrap it up. This conference, Ginebra was also ahead, 3-2. In PBA Finals history, 77 percent of teams that had a 3-2 edge went on to claim the championship but of the 54 winners, only 14 did it in Game 7, raising TNT’s chances to repeat.

TNT coach Chot Reyes and Ginebra coach Tim Cone are in a race for supremacy. In eight Finals confrontations so far, Reyes has the advantage, 5-3. TNT is on its fifth straight Finals but has lost the last two. Ginebra hasn’t won a title in the last seven conferences and bowed to TNT in its previous three Finals appearances. The duel of wits is just as critical as the mano-a-mano conflict between Justin Brownlee and Chris McCullough.

Defense will be key in determining the survivor. In TNT’s three wins in the Finals, Ginebra was held to an average of 94 points but in three losses, the Tropang 5G gave up an average of 106. Ginebra’s orientation is similar. In its three wins, TNT was limited to an average of 99 points and in three losses, TNT scored an average of 101.7. The numbers indicate that TNT relies more on defense than Ginebra.

Finding the open man is another key. In three Finals wins, Ginebra averaged 25.3 assists but in three losses, it was down to 17.3. The impact is evident in Ginebra’s field goal percentage as in three wins, it’s 48.4 percent but 46.1 percent in three defeats. Throughout the series, TNT has banked on perimeter shooting, outscoring Ginebra in this department in five of the six games so far. In contrast, Ginebra has outpointed TNT in the paint in four of the six games. If TNT is hot from the outside, it’s difficult to beat.

Health is essential. Calvin Oftana and Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser sat out Game 6. Jayson Castro tweaked his ankle in that 98-90 TNT win and is doubtful tonight. Scottie Thompson averaged 4.3 points in the last three outings. He hit at a 13.9 clip in the elims and 17 in the semis. Could Thompson be nursing an injury? Resilience is essential to compensate for missing pieces.

In Game 6, three TNT players logged at least 40 minutes and Ginebra, only JB and RJ Abarrientos were in that category. Which team will show up with fresher legs? JB scored 54 in Game 5 and 52 in Game 6. C-Mac shot 53 in Game 6. Can they continue their binge? Is it humanly possible? Only JB was in double figures for Ginebra while three were in twin digits for TNT in Game 6. Will bench support play a big role? Will RR Pogoy continue to be JB’s primary defender? Will Troy Rosario focus on locking horns with C-Mac? All the questions will be answered tonight.