Rabbit

We are now less than a week before the President Marcos Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA). It will be his penultimate address, a chance to account for the nation’s course and set the predicate for this administration’s legacy.

Remarkably, no one seems to be looking forward to this speech. It seems there is not much to say in it. The team tasked with preparing this high visibility speech must be going through a terrible time.

In the past, the Cabinet was fielded full-force the week ahead of the SONA to prompt the main talking points of the forthcoming speech. Meetings with key stakeholders are held. Interviews with policymakers flood the media. Accomplishments are advertised. The public is properly keyed for important announcements to be made.

None of these is happening thus far. There is no excitement in the air. There is no build-up of expectations. It is as if this is just another chore to be done with. Just another speech to be made.

The SONA has an important place in our political traditions. The first one a new president delivers sets the tone for an administration. The last one will try to sound as triumphant as possible. Always, the speech is an occasion for competing narratives to contest the political space.

Since 1970, when a riot broke out after Marcos Sr. delivered his speech, the day of the SONA has been a day of confrontation. The political faction in power uses this speech to assure the nation that all is well. The opposition uses the “parliament of the streets” to convince the public of the “true” state of the nation.

The past few years, the SONA seems to have resonated less and less with our citizens. Two years ago, Marcos Jr. used the speech to boast about 5,500 flood control projects being completed. That was a regrettable claim. All the corruption associated with these projects dominated the headlines.

Last year, in the midst of intense public outcry over the looting of public funds, Marcos Jr. chided the politicians to have some shame. That came across as weak. One year after that speech, the looting of public works funds produced little results – at least compared to public expectations of a comprehensive anti-corruption response.

Public disappointment with the tepid official response to what has been called the biggest corruption scandal in our history is identified as a major driver of this administration’s collapsing performance rating. There is a sense that the powerful political cliques have, in the main, succeeded in covering up the real scale of the looting.

The President cannot avoid addressing the corruption issue in next week’s speech. It is the single most telling indicator of the quality of governance this administration provided. Next week’s SONA is the President’s last chance to salvage what he has left.

Last year, Marcos Jr. established a commission to look into corruption of infrastructure funds. That commission, poorly designed and constituted, failed to produce anything spectacular. Its members resigned until only the chairman was left. Its conclusions were unconvincing.

The Senate Blue Ribbon committee stepped into the void and tried its hand at investigating the mess. Sen. Rodante Marcoleta produced a witness with politically devastating claims. That witness has now disappeared and Marcoleta finds himself in jail.

The credibility of the Senate investigation is in tatters. The institution itself appears to have imploded. Today, the chamber’s time and energy are consumed by an impeachment trial that is itself losing the public’s interest.

The ombudsman is now the last chance to expect accountability from those involved in looting over a trillion pesos in infrastructure funds. The office said last week it was very close to filing cases against high profile politicians. But the public has tired of these promises. Recall when it was announced that “big fish” will be jailed “before Christmas.” That was last year.

Unless Marcos Jr. announces something dramatic about the corruption investigations going on, his forthcoming SONA will fail to impress. He does not have much time left to build a legacy – or rescue his collapsing political position.

Inflation, always at the top of mind, will continue to ravage. The falling peso and a new oil price shock guarantees that the inflation rate will remain elevated for months.

Our economy is in bad shape. All the institutions that matter have downgraded our growth prospects one after the other. Our agriculture continues to fail. If this year’s El Niño becomes more severe toward the end of the year, we might not be able to import as much rice as we need.

We are getting less and less direct foreign investments. Consequently, unemployment is bound to rise.

With rising criminality, the public feels less safe in the streets. Social media is now filled with nostalgia for Rodrigo Duterte’s tough leadership.

Pulse Asia’s freshly released opinion poll shows Marcos Jr.’s satisfaction ratings getting even worse. He desperately needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat in next week’s speech to reverse the tide of disillusionment. Public expectation for decisive leadership is at its peak.

But if there is no rabbit in the hat, Marcos Jr. might try to wag the dog instead. He might unveil a plan for Charter change that will, in the meantime, keep the same discredited politicians in place.

That will not go well with an unhappy people.