MANILA, Philippines - Wireless technology in 2010 will be at an inflection point characterized by changes in the way telecom operators would shift their focus toward data and new revenue streams, according to strategy advisory firm inCode Telecom.
The firm, which claims 80 percent accuracy in its seven years of making predictions, also sees lots of netbooks but less of smartphones in the next 12 months.
The netbook, which became a popular wireless device in 2009, will continue to be highly in demand next year. Used by consumers as their secondary wireless devices, netbooks offer operators some incremental revenue streams but could also strain their networks.
Because netbooks are considered as full computing devices that require laptop-type support, operators need to rack up their spending on synchronizing netbooks with consumers’ wireless devices or else outsource these capabilities.
“There is a collision between handsets getting smarter and computers having portability and mobility as a more important feature,” Jorge Fuenzalida, vice president and general manager of inCode Telecom, said in a statement.
This brings inCode to its other prediction: smartphones will no longer be a discernable category in 2010. From being a device that stands out from the status quo, smartphones will be the status quo, said inCode.
With the coming of more fancy smartphones, their advanced features are fast becoming table stakes for mid-tier devices and no longer limited to high-end devices. Smartphone prices are also falling that could result in fairly extreme price wars for carriers in terms of subsidies, Fuenzalida said.
If inCode reads it right, the wireless sector of the telecom industry here and abroad may also experience inflection points in areas of Quality-of-Service (QoS), machine-to-machine (M2M), mobile operating system shakeout, and Internet videos.
Now that almost all operators have gone eat-all-you-can, there’s no easy way to take it back, said inCode, adding that wireless operators will be forced to charge for incremental features and capabilities as usage-based pricing becomes increasingly out of the question.
Quality-of-Service pricing is one option already being explored for applications such as Voice over IP (VoIP) and video streaming to increase the total cost of service, but not the basic transport fee, inCode noted.
Next year, carriers will also engage in partnerships with or acquisitions of M2M companies. The strategy advisor firm pointed out that the interest in connecting a slew of devices to the wireless LAN already peaked in 2009, mainly due to the profit-boosting ability of this low-churn, low-cost-per-gross-ad business.
Then there’s the expected shakeout of the seven dominant mobile operating systems embedded in handsets today. Fuenzalida said there isn’t enough device revenue to support them all and, even with open systems initiatives, developing for all seven takes a lot of time, work and investment.
OS platforms with extensive developer support, streamlined certification processes and integration of Web 2.0 features will take the lead.
Specifically, Fuenzalida said the likely winners will be Android, BlackBerry, Microsoft and Symbian, as well as Apple. Others will fall by the wayside, inCode predicts.
Telcos are also seen getting more into the game market as game consoles become Internet video source of choice.
According to inCode, the amount of Internet video viewed on the TV will double with gaming consoles accounting for almost half of the usage due to expanded content availability, existing revenue models, and higher-definition programming. Internet-connected TVs and over-the-top set-top boxes will trail gaming consoles and emerge after 2010.
These key predictions for 2010 will be played out along with other of inCode predictions related to 4G and mobile phones’ battery life challenges, as well as the assertive role telcos will play in cloud computing in the enterprise.
All in all, inCode said the inflection point they see next year will be more significant than any juncture the wireless sector has been through so far.